{"paper":{"title":"Short-Duration Gamma-ray Burst and Afterglow Rates in the Rubin and Roman Era","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.HE","authors_text":"Nathaniel Butler, Tzvetelina Dimitrova","submitted_at":"2026-06-16T20:27:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"Short-duration gamma-ray burst (sGRB) afterglows that follow BNS-gravitational wave (GW) events are essential for understanding the tension between the observed sGRB rate and BNS merger rate, heightened by the recent conclusion of aLIGO O4 with no new confirmed BNS detections. Using a probabilistic sGRB world model derived from a source BNS merger population, we simulate afterglow emission with AfterglowPy to investigate detection prospects of afterglows in the new era of optical surveys, and probe their multi-messenger implications. The predicted sGRB/BNS association is strongly dependent on "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.18468","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.18468/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}