{"paper":{"title":"Does \"model-free\" forecasting really outperform the \"true\" model? A reply to Perretti et al","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["nlin.CD","stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Hartig","submitted_at":"2013-05-15T17:01:13Z","abstract_excerpt":"Estimating population models from uncertain observations is an important problem in ecology. Perretti et al. observed that standard Bayesian state-space solutions to this problem may provide biased parameter estimates when the underlying dynamics are chaotic. Consequently, forecasts based on these estimates showed poor predictive accuracy compared to simple \"model-free\" methods, which lead Perretti et al. to conclude that \"Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data\". However, a simple modification of the statistical methods also suffice"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1305.3544","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}