{"paper":{"title":"Value-of-Information Analysis for External Validation of Risk Prediction Models in Multicenter Studies and Systematic Reviews","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Andrea Gabrio, Andrew Vickers, Ben Van Calster, Ewout Steyerberg, Kim Zhipei Wang, Laure Wynants, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Sabine Grimm","submitted_at":"2026-07-02T15:30:21Z","abstract_excerpt":"External validation studies have finite sample sizes, creating uncertainty about whether a prediction model's Net Benefit (NB) exceeds default strategies' NB. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) quantifies consequences of uncertainty. Current EVPI methods focus on single studies, ignoring between-center heterogeneity. We extend EVPI and expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) to account for between-cluster heterogeneity in multicenter studies and meta-analyses. We distinguish between the global and local optimal strategy and between observed and unobserved clusters. "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.02321","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.02321/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}