{"paper":{"title":"Understanding Software Defect Prediction: A Large-scale Empirical Study Across Uncertainty Quantification and Performance Evaluation","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.SE","authors_text":"Ranjun Peng, Rubing Huang, WenBin He, Xuan Xie, Zhijie Wang","submitted_at":"2026-07-02T08:05:27Z","abstract_excerpt":"Software defect prediction (SDP) classifiers produce probabilities used for inspection prioritization, threshold tuning, and risk communication. Probability-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) characterizes prediction confidence, but whether common UQ metrics reliably indicate performance and calibration remains unclear. We conducted a large-scale empirical study of probability-based UQ for SDP. We evaluated five UQ metrics, six performance metrics, and three calibration metrics for 16 representative classifiers. We analyzed these relationships under two prediction settings: within-project d"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.01842","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.01842/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}