{"paper":{"title":"Cross-Fitted Survey-Weighted TMLE with Design-Based Variance for Causal Machine Learning","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"M. Ehsan Karim","submitted_at":"2026-06-29T21:10:02Z","abstract_excerpt":"Cross-fitting is not a refinement of survey-weighted causal machine learning but, once the nuisances are flexible, what restores valid inference. We study the population average treatment effect under a stratified multistage design, estimated by a survey-aware targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) whose variance is obtained by Taylor-series linearization of the influence function, treating the primary sampling unit as the replication unit. Our central result, established in theory and simulation, is that this validity turns on cross-fitting at the cluster level. Once flexible learners c"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.30918","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.30918/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}