{"paper":{"title":"Competitive satellite placement and the geography of orbital risk: evidence from the geostationary arc","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.soc-ph","q-fin.EC"],"primary_cat":"econ.GN","authors_text":"Akhil Rao, Nikodem Szumilo","submitted_at":"2026-06-24T01:35:40Z","abstract_excerpt":"Some orbital locations are crowded while others remain unoccupied. We explain why using the geostationary orbit as a near-ideal laboratory: a mature, one-dimensional orbit in which satellite operators compete for position under first-come first-served allocation rules. Using the complete ITU registry and a simple competitive entry model, we predict the observed distribution of active GEO satellites with $R^2 = 0.64$. In walk-forward tests, the structural model also predicts individual slot choices out of sample better than a fitted conditional-logit discrete-choice model. Our model also predic"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.25283","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.25283/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}