{"paper":{"title":"Multi-type branching inference on contact trees with application to COVID-19","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.DS","q-bio.PE"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.QM","authors_text":"Augustine Okolie, Eno Akarawakc, Isaac Ajiboye, Johannes M\\\"uller","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T13:02:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"Inferring epidemiological parameters from transmission trees is essential for understanding infectious disease dynamics. Existing tree-based likelihood methods, including the multi-type birth-death models originally applied in phylodynamic settings, provide powerful tools, but most assume homogeneous mixing and rarely capture how transmission potential changes as an individual infects more of their contacts. In this work, we develop a likelihood framework that operates directly on transmission trees, in which nodes are individuals and edges are reported transmission events, with no sequence da"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.19405","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.19405/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}