{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting threshold exceedance of atmospheric variables at a specific location","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Jean-Fran\\c{c}ois Muzy, Roberta Baggio","submitted_at":"2026-05-29T09:46:03Z","abstract_excerpt":"This study compares two methodological approaches for predicting, at a given site, threshold exceedances of atmospheric variables such as temperature and wind speed: (i) direct probabilistic methods, which treat exceedance as a binary classification problem, and (ii) full distribution probabilistic methods, which model the complete conditional probability law of the target variable. Using theoretical analysis and numerical simulations on a toy model, alongside real-world data from the MeteoNet dataset (2016--2018) for southeastern France, we demonstrate that the full distribution approach cons"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.31079","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.31079/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}