{"paper":{"title":"Cruise Ship-Associated Andes Virus Cluster aboard MV Hondius, 2026: A Stochastic Scenario Analysis","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-bio.QM"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Gerardo Chowell, Hamed Karami, Kaustubh Wagh, Kenji Mizumoto, Raj Kumar Subedi","submitted_at":"2026-06-07T00:59:19Z","abstract_excerpt":"In April 2026, the MV Hondius expedition cruise ship became the site of the first documented cruise ship-associated Andes hantavirus (ANDV) cluster, with 13 confirmed and probable cases and 3 deaths among 149 passengers and crew. We applied a stochastic epidemic model to evaluate four embarkation scenarios under reproductive numbers anchored to published ANDV estimates. Scenario D, involving two latent infected persons at embarkation, was most consistent with the observed outbreak, yielding P(final size >= 13) = 11.6% and P(takeoff) = 58.5% at R0 = 2.12. Approximate Bayesian computation provid"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.08391","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.08391/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}