{"paper":{"title":"Continuous-Time Probabilistic Correctors for Uncertainty-Aware Physics-Based Spacecraft Trajectory Forecasting","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Cody Fleming, Muhammad Bilal Shahid, Soumik Sarkar, Zhanhong Jiang","submitted_at":"2026-06-19T01:16:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"Long-horizon spacecraft trajectory forecasting suffers from error accumulation due to the absence of corrective observations in the forecast regime, making reliable uncertainty estimation crucial for safety-critical decision-making such as space domain awareness and conjunction assessment. While high-fidelity physics-based orbit propagators provide accurate deterministic forecasts, they typically lack calibrated uncertainty estimates over long horizons. We introduce a Predictor--Corrector framework in which a physics-based continuous-time $\\textit{deterministic}$ forecaster is augmented with a"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.21021","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.21021/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}