{"paper":{"title":"Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Christopher David Roberts, Frederic Vitart","submitted_at":"2024-11-26T18:58:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Ensemble forecasts can exhibit counterintuitive statistical properties such that the correlation between ensemble means and observations ($r_{mo}$) exceeds the correlation between ensemble means and individual members ($r_{mm}$). This behaviour has been interpreted as a `signal-to-noise paradox' (SNP), which is commonly diagnosed using the ratio of predictable components ($\\textnormal{RPC} = \\sqrt { r_{mo}^2 / r_{mm}^2 } $). Here, we emphasise the links between ensemble-size-invariant estimates of RPC and other metrics of ensemble reliability and derive a general closed-form expression for RPC"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2411.17694","kind":"arxiv","version":5},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2411.17694/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}