{"paper":{"title":"Diffusion piecewise exponential models for survival extrapolation using Piecewise Deterministic Monte Carlo","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Gianluca Baio, Luke Hardcastle, Samuel Livingstone","submitted_at":"2025-05-09T10:24:12Z","abstract_excerpt":"The piecewise exponential model is a flexible non-parametric approach for time-to-event data, but extrapolation beyond final observation times typically relies on random walk priors and deterministic knot locations, resulting in unrealistic long-term hazards. We introduce the diffusion piecewise exponential model, a prior framework consisting of a discretised diffusion for the hazard, that can encode a wide variety of information about the long-term behaviour of the hazard, time changed by a Poisson process prior for knot locations. This allows the behaviour of the hazard in the observation pe"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2505.05932","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2505.05932/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}