{"paper":{"title":"The Bayesian Origin of the Probability Weighting Function in Human Representation of Probabilities","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","econ.TH"],"primary_cat":"q-bio.NC","authors_text":"Michael Hahn, Thi Thu Uyen Hoang, Xin Tong, Xue-Xin Wei","submitted_at":"2025-10-06T11:10:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Humans systematically misrepresent probability in a stereotyped inverse-S pattern. It has been documented for decades, but its origin remains unexplained. We propose a Bayesian encoding-decoding account in which probabilities are represented by noisy internal signals and decoded by Bayes-risk minimization. For bounded probability stimuli, we show that distortion decomposes into boundary regression, likelihood repulsion, and prior attraction, yielding a key prediction: the classic inverse-S-shaped weighting pattern implies a U-shaped allocation of encoding precision with greater sensitivity nea"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2510.04698","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}