{"paper":{"title":"How to Verify Consistency of Probabilistic Claims","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CC","authors_text":"Oliver Richardson, Orr Paradise, Shafi Goldwasser, Yoshua Bengio","submitted_at":"2026-08-11T17:41:39Z","abstract_excerpt":"When a probabilistic predictor answers many conditional-probability queries, are its answers self-consistent, and can this be verified in polynomial time? This problem is of interest for AI safety, where safety is derived from honesty about probabilistic predictions of unwanted outcomes potentially caused by an AI action. We construct an interactive PCP as follows. Let a predictive model be specified by a probability circuit P and a circuit Q which outputs confidence in predictions. Together, P and Q implicitly specify exponentially many probabilistic claims. We show a protocol in which a poly"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2608.11181","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2608.11181/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}