{"paper":{"title":"The implied longevity curve: How long does the market think you are going to live?","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-fin.MF","authors_text":"Alexander Chigodaev, Moshe A. Milevsky, Thomas S. Salisbury","submitted_at":"2018-11-25T02:43:48Z","abstract_excerpt":"We use life annuity prices to extract information about human longevity using a framework that links the term structure of mortality and interest rates. We invert the model and perform nonlinear least squares to obtain implied longevity forecasts. Methodologically, we assume a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for the underlying yield curve, and for mortality, a Gompertz-Makeham (GM) law that varies with the year of annuity purchase. Our main result is that over the last decade markets implied an improvement in longevity of of 6-7 weeks per year for males and 1-3 weeks for females. In the year 20"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1811.09932","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}