{"paper":{"title":"MedBayes-Lite: A Clinical Uncertainty Governance Layer for Risk-Aware Medical Decision Support","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.AI","authors_text":"Bj\\\"orn W. Schuller, Elias Hossain, Maleeha Sheikh, Md Mehedi Hasan Nipu, Niloofar Yousefi, Rajib Rana, Subash Neupane, Tasfia Nuzhat","submitted_at":"2025-11-20T18:33:12Z","abstract_excerpt":"Clinical language models often assign high confidence to incorrect predictions, particularly in high-severity and out-of-distribution cases. We present MedBayes-Lite, a retraining-free uncertainty governance layer for transformer-based clinical predictors. It combines Monte Carlo dropout, predictive calibration, and confidence-guided abstention to defer low-confidence predictions for human review, adding no trainable parameters. Evaluated on MedMCQA and MedQA-USMLE, MedBayes-Lite reduces expected calibration error by 0.23 to 0.33 and drives harmful overconfident errors (confident, incorrect, h"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2511.16625","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2511.16625/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}