{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian Imputation for Unplayed Games in Round-Robin Chess Tournaments: Application to Grand Chess Tour, Bucharest 2026","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Ravi Varadhan","submitted_at":"2026-05-26T20:10:05Z","abstract_excerpt":"When a player withdraws mid-tournament from a round-robin chess event, organizers face a fundamental problem: how should scores be assigned for games that were never played? Current FIDE guidelines specify annulment if withdrawal occurs before 50% of games are completed, and forfeit (awarding unplayed opponents a full point) thereafter. This dichotomous rule creates arbitrary discontinuities and can substantially distort final standings. We develop a Bayesian framework based on best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) that optimally combines pre-tournament ratings with observed performance, prod"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.27650","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.27650/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}