{"paper":{"title":"Artificial Prediction Markets for Online Prediction of Continuous Variables-A Preliminary Report","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.AI","authors_text":"Benjamin Hirsch, Fatemeh Jahedpari, Julian Padget, Marina De Vos, Sattar Hashemi","submitted_at":"2015-08-11T18:37:29Z","abstract_excerpt":"We propose the Artificial Continuous Prediction Market (ACPM) as a means to predict a continuous real value, by integrating a range of data sources and aggregating the results of different machine learning (ML) algorithms. ACPM adapts the concept of the (physical) prediction market to address the prediction of real values instead of discrete events. Each ACPM participant has a data source, a ML algorithm and a local decision-making procedure that determines what to bid on what value. The contributions of ACPM are: (i) adaptation to changes in data quality by the use of learning in: (a) the mar"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1508.02681","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}