{"paper":{"title":"Integrating b-Value and Background Seismicity Rate for Spatial Earthquake Forecasting in the Alborz Region, Northern Iran","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Marjan Tourani, Muhammed Hossein Mousavi, Parva Sadeghi Alavijeh","submitted_at":"2026-05-22T11:00:15Z","abstract_excerpt":"In this study, we evaluate the spatial forecasting skill of the $b$-value and background seismicity rate $\\mu$ across the Alborz region using a homogenized catalog of 23,961 earthquakes ($M \\geq 1.5$) recorded by the Iranian Seismological Center between 2006 and 2024. Forecast performance for $M \\geq 4.0$ and $M \\geq 4.5$ is assessed using Molchan error diagrams, probability gain, probability difference, and the modified area skill score. The results show that $\\mu$ provides a consistently strong spatial signal, with Molchan curves well below the random baseline and probability gains of 5--6 a"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.23494","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.23494/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}