{"paper":{"title":"Multi-stage models for the failure of complex systems, cascading disasters, and the onset of disease","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-bio.QM"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"A.J. Webster","submitted_at":"2018-11-22T10:46:44Z","abstract_excerpt":"Complex systems can fail through different routes, often progressing through a series of (rate-limiting) steps and modified by environmental exposures. The onset of disease, cancer in particular, is no different. Multi-stage models provide a simple but very general mathematical framework for studying the failure of complex systems, or equivalently, the onset of disease. They include the Armitage Doll multi-stage cancer model as a particular case, and have potential to provide new insights into how failures and disease, arise and progress. A method described by E.T. Jaynes is developed to provi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1811.09101","kind":"arxiv","version":5},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}