{"paper":{"title":"A General Theory of Paths: Signatures, Jump Lifts, and Expected Signatures of Self-Exciting Processes","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-fin.MF"],"primary_cat":"math.PR","authors_text":"Miquel Noguer i Alonso","submitted_at":"2026-06-27T11:22:53Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper develops a path-first theory using the signature as a universal coordinate for deterministic paths, rough paths, jump streams, and path-valued random variables. Geometricity is presented as a first-order algebraic property with second-order obstructions: a bracket for non-geometric lifts, and a covariance when averaging random paths. This framework links the shuffle identity, Marcus-Ito distinction, expected signatures, signature kernels, and free nilpotent group geometry. We offer four main contributions. (1) The Geometricity-Defect Theorem identifies quadratic covariation and coor"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.28869","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.28869/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}