{"paper":{"title":"A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Using a Fokker-Planck Equation","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","authors_text":"Michael S. Wheatland, Patrick L. Noble","submitted_at":"2011-11-14T01:51:45Z","abstract_excerpt":"A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \\apj{} \\textbf{732}, 5) with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models. The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles 19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1111.3084","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}