{"paper":{"title":"Modeling Falling Backgrounds with Exponential Mixtures","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"hep-ex","authors_text":"Austin Townsend, Marc Osherson, Mike Hildreth, Stefano Castruccio","submitted_at":"2026-07-01T12:51:16Z","abstract_excerpt":"Searches for new physics at the LHC often look for localized excesses on smoothly falling background distributions. Several classes of background models have been considered, including polynomials and other parametric families; however, these approaches can require extensive analysis-specific development as datasets grow. In this work, we motivate the finite exponential mixture as a flexible semi-parametric class of functions for approximating falling distributions, drawing on results from extreme value theory. Using two published datasets ($n=28,619,185$ and $n=5,036$), we show that the expon"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.00884","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.00884/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}