{"paper":{"title":"Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment creates a falsifiable protocol that archives every prediction for later public release to test eruption predictability limits.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"Didier Sornette, Maochuan Zhang, Qinghua Lei, Scott L. Nooner, William S. D. Wilcock, William W. Chadwick Jr.","submitted_at":"2025-11-08T20:40:53Z","abstract_excerpt":"We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detaile"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"That real-time data from the Regional Cabled Array combined with an unspecified physics-based framework will generate forecasts capable of meaningfully testing predictability limits.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"The EFE sets up a transparent protocol of timestamped, hashed monthly forecasts for Axial Seamount eruptions using real-time ocean data, with all predictions published after the fact to enable falsifiable evaluation.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment creates a falsifiable protocol that archives every prediction for later public release to test eruption predictability limits.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"0626995b50cecd686a5ec15c8b7edc17cbbea1b459d30b35934027e97a1d0772"},"source":{"id":"2511.06128","kind":"arxiv","version":7},"verdict":{"id":"129fa2c7-b66f-4d42-b291-70c8855e8bcb","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:54.004957Z","strongest_claim":"By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting.","one_line_summary":"The EFE sets up a transparent protocol of timestamped, hashed monthly forecasts for Axial Seamount eruptions using real-time ocean data, with all predictions published after the fact to enable falsifiable evaluation.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"That real-time data from the Regional Cabled Array combined with an unspecified physics-based framework will generate forecasts capable of meaningfully testing predictability limits.","pith_extraction_headline":"The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment creates a falsifiable protocol that archives every prediction for later public release to test eruption predictability limits."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2511.06128/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"5eae494aa78af088d031edd3d8e7990f1587462d9e5ccee9199e06edfdc19eb6"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}