{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian modelling of herd-level infection dynamics in cattle: Local spread as the primary driver of Salmonella Dublin persistence on \\\"Oland","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","authors_text":"Arianna Comin, Ivana Ewerl\\\"of, Robert Johansson, Stefan Engblom, Stefan Widgren","submitted_at":"2026-06-22T10:48:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"Salmonella Dublin (S. Dublin), a zoonotic serotype adapted to cattle, causes animal welfare issues and economic losses. The disease has proven particularly challenging to control in \\\"Oland, Sweden. This study uses Bayesian simulation-based inference of bulk tank milk sample results to analyse the S. Dublin infection dynamics in \\\"Oland cattle. The infection process was formulated as a dynamic state-space model and particle Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods were applied to infer the underlying infection dynamics and estimate the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) as well as the effective reprodu"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.23148","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.23148/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}