{"paper":{"title":"Kling-Gupta linear regression","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.ao-ph","stat.ME","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Georgia Papacharalampous, Hristos Tyralis","submitted_at":"2026-06-08T12:06:14Z","abstract_excerpt":"Although the Kling-Gupta efficiency ($\\mathrm{KGE}$) is widely adopted for model evaluation in hydrology, its properties as a statistical estimator remain unexplored. Investigating these properties is necessary because parameter estimation and forecast evaluation are inherently linked. To address this, we formalize the negatively oriented Kling-Gupta loss $L_\\mathrm{KG} = (1 - \\mathrm{KGE})^2$ within an extremum estimation framework (equivalent to maximizing $\\mathrm{KGE}$) and analyze its behavior in multiple linear regression. We establish explicit formulas for the parameter estimates, showi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.09391","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.09391/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}