{"as_of":"2026-08-17T21:07:00Z","caps":{"database_statements":6,"inbound":100,"outbound":100},"context_digest":"sha256:ab471d9206d4f75a6dc43428eea78c8028f52650da26f6b8642c6ef68061964d","coverage":[{"denominator":81,"lane":"reference_resolution","note":"Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.","records_observed":81,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.760049Z","state":"measured"},{"denominator":82,"lane":"standing_notices","note":"One-hop event checks from named stored sources.","records_observed":82,"source":"scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache","source_observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","state":"measured"},{"denominator":1,"lane":"inbound_itemization","note":"Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.","records_observed":1,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":"2026-05-10T01:28:36.715565Z","state":"measured"},{"denominator":1,"lane":"external_citation_measurements","note":"A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.","records_observed":0,"source":"arxiv_reference","source_observed_at":"2026-05-11T13:36:03.490184Z","state":"measured"}],"external_citation_measurements":[],"inbound":[{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","doi":null,"metadata_source":"arxiv_reference","pith_arxiv_id":"2507.08921","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-06-05T21:23:00.469572Z","title":"Are betting markets better than polling in predicting political elections?","venue":null,"work_id":"3279f5ce-e4d9-4869-886d-cdc41596f49b","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2604.20421","last_updated":"2026-04-22T10:39:47Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T21:36:49.380161Z","submitted_at":"2026-04-22T10:39:47Z","title":"Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \\& Analysis]","version":1},"reference_index":9,"source":"pdf_text","source_observed_at":"2026-05-10T01:28:36.715565Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2507.08921","citing_paper":"/paper/2604.20421"},"observation_digest":"sha256:87fc49ba2e8ec884a6b923b7f39f49448995720d1c7f8db00b8c7ed91d9b2adb","observation_id":"6563fec1-264f-4953-b0d5-0b0997ecd113","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-05-11T13:36:03.497718Z","resolver_source":"arxiv_id","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}}],"links":{"evidence":"/evidence","html":"/paper/2507.08921/citation-record","integrity":"/paper/2507.08921/integrity","json":"/paper/2507.08921/citation-record.json","paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"outbound":[{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.311744Z","title":"Polymarket 2024 us election state data","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":1,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.311744Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1d87bc313a54a348f8ea052b033ed2b4c3e47b4089c0fbce964690d58bed5196","observation_id":"d50aabc4-800e-4f07-bfee-dea5d82f949c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.311744Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.435362Z","title":"A new paradigm for polling","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":2,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.435362Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9fef37822a20b40f6edcd2d875b4523b396a5a4b395b50ee272cd7979178f478","observation_id":"21903b30-00f6-4100-af8c-f076a4b8a193","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.435362Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1016/s1574-0722(07)00080-7","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research","venue":"Handbook of experimental economics results","work_id":"a781958b-2ac4-4134-bfee-427b33fce8b9","year":2008},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":3,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.500374Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:5a846380609c2a47da0af5b6169dee2f9af928e173019215ac4ba86284cbcc99","observation_id":"04b89936-2a92-43a1-868e-7d261f4ec033","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.165824Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.882540Z","title":"Us traders flock to an election-betting site they're banned from","venue":null,"work_id":"e41c58a2-a1a8-49ad-af76-892071af6912","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":4,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.606273Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e962aa765767d55ce7b35b61c09fa4f126cada771016d691b3aa35ddb4dc3ed6","observation_id":"a4f8cdf3-836b-4476-95a0-de44e05632a0","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.896923Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.790844Z","title":"2025 cryptocurrency adoption and consumer sentiment report","venue":null,"work_id":"78949a23-250a-4883-b9cb-342d65a7a527","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":5,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.702851Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:80ca6fcec03b6b1852393c40129b0711d999534036bad94a80d2c8b5b5a4115a","observation_id":"7b8b79cc-b30d-4f45-bf2a-ccff1e0d8164","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.874167Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.762233Z","title":"Brodersen, Florian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, and Steven L","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2015},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":6,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.762233Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:0329ffb77e8c56e78d8c566ceb85da9faf57beeb79a075bab8adaa44b98878df","observation_id":"f2dfde95-8ef9-494a-9b18-0f02947f293c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.762233Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1017/cbo9780511614576.014","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":null,"venue":"Cambridge University Press eBooks","work_id":"a1657aab-ed33-42d1-9e2f-298c45d2780e","year":2005},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":7,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.840277Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e50aca73baff8e61e1f7e6c844f6c059cc13ba52501b682e644ff0deed53d92f","observation_id":"079fed99-f542-46c7-a093-f5d8c10ae978","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.057996Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1017/s1537592704040526","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Caldeira","venue":"Perspectives on Politics","work_id":"890daa8d-efaa-4631-90cc-e536e45abaed","year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":8,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:01.956717Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:30e664d69db370f61e3adf74ffad62a0617dc1f9166d2b16a1f8db1dc3fc88e8","observation_id":"33c9187b-8c35-46a7-a1dd-918f6c59aa6a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.943892Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1177/00027642221118901","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Joseph Campbell","venue":"American Behavioral Scientist","work_id":"80b372ac-3faa-4949-afa8-5ccbb4f44db0","year":2022},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":9,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.050534Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2afeb9480ed94496a714d1a0a0821d97ddefc92a949ee692cdcfd7930b8c7c68","observation_id":"7bf63d15-3d9a-4665-aa2d-ae2750e1c52b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.800062Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.623721Z","title":"What Killed Intrade? The New Yorker, March 2013","venue":null,"work_id":"54510ab3-6965-43fc-ad3f-1707ce2fb2ad","year":2013},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":10,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.121207Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:fde2d74a1ef2132d738b2c50cb5e7dde52e9c07a2dbab82447d2808288beca86","observation_id":"a204b416-baf2-4e47-9b5b-a63c8d46fbb1","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.695725Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.489686Z","title":"Cftc orders event-based binary options markets operator to pay \\ 1.4 million penalty","venue":null,"work_id":"17e0abc1-429b-423e-9f13-5c6fbc95f4f3","year":2022},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":11,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.202440Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:3a24490d8ae966b691acaca36625b7cd52ff043cfb2180d2ee6e5ffde87e8f3d","observation_id":"b69b355d-54ce-4131-9141-965bc67556f3","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.533470Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.387587Z","title":"Polling Paradox: What Actually Shapes the Numbers? Good Authority, October 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"77a50af4-9965-4370-a6ac-d5d8896eff3d","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":12,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.262503Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:db22e6da51dbcb1a435724a8778e05ccd7e210b31ddace870eb7b28c889cf811","observation_id":"0318f46e-d65a-4ad5-b15d-ce3e4fbbb20a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.433183Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.195146Z","title":"A lot of state poll results show ties","venue":null,"work_id":"8ad8db01-f5b3-4f9a-b923-10ca95fe3fa0","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":13,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.349605Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c484298c279847f3b6430c66c2d3deccbf454ff02a2345c0d5a0c533093bb570","observation_id":"a78c3ad2-9a22-440d-8d7a-5874d605b9e6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.295244Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.999684Z","title":"Aapor task force on 2020 pre-election polls: Performance of the polls in the democratic primaries","venue":null,"work_id":"77e3bc09-2244-44b0-9e0e-1b9875a4050b","year":2020},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":14,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.450345Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ee60157fb3e381103703cf28806a87c6a922069d24d92d4626710e29c15ef7e6","observation_id":"0b7ffb91-15fc-49eb-8e32-397ea76812b4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:22.092879Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.840957Z","title":"Polymarket plans u.s","venue":null,"work_id":"60249867-b180-4ef1-85fb-a68430079364","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":15,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.510543Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:5842dc7c67434683e3224c0d17661a3cd28283a84f6bdb46abb1059cb3213885","observation_id":"1bd39bb1-ebae-49cc-b7ab-198b94417c1c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.920393Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.593279Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2009},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":16,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.593279Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e4c526635b519c7fd325c0bc08d5662c62806434d2e3ed98e7748741373cc369","observation_id":"b6e1c2b2-49e8-419f-97d5-d5fa50b02970","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.593279Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.739173Z","title":"The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker","venue":null,"work_id":"93006cd1-f4d5-4bbd-b719-d256d1d6528e","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":17,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.702143Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:895e19cd1a7adada80d59237ad4ea11d450d60f4e16c24bb338439b5474a4f0c","observation_id":"9c7024d4-e0e0-4765-9089-8f1734e1b820","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.793624Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1086/265035","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":null,"venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","work_id":"f13b0227-00e5-4891-8a02-b024f6da7025","year":1936},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":18,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.790410Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9a66cce42ef5bed1c07081d126a02827b4896a6d68b6ff7327adc9af70002c6a","observation_id":"0bd556b6-2c03-404f-8e43-6f8a0829996c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.678392Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1037/dec0000004","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Davis-Stober , David V","venue":"Decision","work_id":"dbfc700e-9095-429f-b918-2327054e88ed","year":2014},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":19,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.868228Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b7844413cc32b6089192cbf6063cc8d9a2fd8a4c912c0cebd9c17d871a35c675","observation_id":"6dd6d260-aaff-4bb8-927f-d5e17433971f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.537603Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"republicans-liked-crypto-before-trump-did/7739825","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.951394Z","title":"Republicans were into crypto long before trump","venue":null,"work_id":"02343a1e-7ef2-45be-bee9-5c009f178210","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":20,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:02.985054Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:06a4e7eeeaf39554b84323f2bcf8935ff833c44873565c7275e1d373fa2b033f","observation_id":"8379198a-88eb-4ded-a084-e8a98fd6c297","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.002507Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.629057Z","title":"First votes in 'digest's' 1936 poll","venue":null,"work_id":"e39e826d-4638-440f-9ef6-a424313e38f5","year":1936},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":21,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.066212Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1acda1ea15128b7dc92b6a0e09c23d4cbc0ec89e463304fb9453be43e9e061b7","observation_id":"fc860752-cc2e-4ce0-8513-a9cfd3d358ed","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.678628Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.461999Z","title":"Political poll news site 538 to close amid larger shuttering across abc and disney","venue":null,"work_id":"7c711923-c25f-4e2a-aace-df495d6a536a","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":22,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.177534Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f96b4e45d9dc3f10cb5c2f82c746eab29679b2740fe19ee31ce8087f58517a92","observation_id":"71e525de-8acd-41ae-899e-5c33c8e669b1","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.553035Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.328590Z","title":"October national poll: Biden with five-point lead one week out","venue":null,"work_id":"cd046e11-dd28-4f6f-8b8d-106e0b613626","year":2020},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":23,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.281947Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:17f521a670edf81eaad0eab5e0b418054beed714bee98f0793318a1f0d54c129","observation_id":"2e9bef8f-0cf8-4ba5-88f5-bc5338766b9f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.393818Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1093/poq/nfn010","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Erikson and Christopher Wlezien","venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","work_id":"def580ab-4d1a-415c-90ac-49b0723f066e","year":2008},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":24,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.353724Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:3b1e23d890fac92f7a11d06e8bc5c8c66da51e43e1c50d836ebb27428f14f803","observation_id":"d625ce06-2298-4d24-942b-78766785d536","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.356033Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"6563.2010","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.692437Z","title":"and Harris","venue":null,"work_id":"bc83d2af-b7be-4688-a2e8-dc6f15b50ac5","year":2010},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":25,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.434327Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ccef952f05c9d74ed9b3185e87f3014299dfa327f50de618f535770f2dc1d0ac","observation_id":"7094c5dd-2a7c-4aac-a296-562f2bee4f53","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.777279Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.189883Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"5dea4b7f-34f4-4384-bfac-1bf7a85b2609","year":1935},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":26,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.499539Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:853a757014cc56174986596719141e192ef639ed81201a148399a236946ed943","observation_id":"0f7d2fa3-9d63-4f84-a4af-01c1fefaf234","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.279861Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.015275Z","title":"Public Opinion and Polling around the World: A Historical Encyclopedia, volume 2","venue":null,"work_id":"ec5eceec-b2b5-4691-a4cd-205295a4506d","year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":27,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.577238Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:80288fed9925091e6cfb7931f22c1c8f89d203f80f3704a256f132686ceec9c0","observation_id":"c437462f-7dd8-48f1-96ae-8ca9c75e5d59","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:21.086512Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.853300Z","title":"Getting it right: The art and science of competent polling","venue":null,"work_id":"95d5b156-cb7d-48f0-97ef-2976f3f15fc6","year":2013},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":28,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.733378Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:942c21a903259860bc12b800f3e88dc7451e1c457497d16326875c693f1ecb37","observation_id":"645cfd5c-5c0c-44cc-aeb3-5280e13e81b4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.950154Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.684636Z","title":"How Do People in the U.S","venue":null,"work_id":"f3468857-6577-46f2-84ee-b58d3de394ce","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":29,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:03.943106Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b4ad085a4ac880c1506754c6c631beba4534967718d5e2ca99a97da2228ed621","observation_id":"a7dba5b7-9934-48a6-8400-af138b45aec3","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.768410Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.565388Z","title":"Economic impact of united states presidential election years: A comparative analysis, September 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"6cd7d6b0-821a-42f6-9b04-119b93e06e02","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":30,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.116860Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:375ee62dcec03000a59ac2395e3ad5a54b9a400cbc4bd804474c9729a75882a8","observation_id":"4e2faeff-981f-40c4-a65a-8f1c13244af9","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.623825Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1177/2378023118791080","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Biases of Online Political Polls: Who Participates? Socius, 4: 0 2378023118791080, January 2018","venue":"Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World","work_id":"801feef0-f1d3-4bc0-bdc0-949b24b677c5","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":31,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.190295Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:8b8907db972facd7d15a493743e1cdca2e8bea94011ee529b9eddc39b33ff7c0","observation_id":"f34ebcc4-457b-4a1a-9a2a-d3ca06486277","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.202349Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1093/poq/nfr054","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Sunshine Hillygus","venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","work_id":"07f0ed59-2fa9-4e9b-b8e1-87f552e51165","year":2011},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":32,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.256745Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f82f0b4321c2dc62e61f0f737c16a7ef0b1862dc3b3a536a1324b867ccfbe37c","observation_id":"22d80c72-b5eb-48ba-aa2c-047bcbc8ab89","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:12.039391Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"an/5579435","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.500224Z","title":"Sunshine Hillygus and Todd G","venue":null,"work_id":"3561c3f1-e8d0-428c-94b0-b6a503a86583","year":2014},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":33,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.340311Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:5984bcdf4348f7a33907e64a1aa46a0543b1468fe51b0fe8b7173008e3650cba","observation_id":"5969a6d1-3f34-4e4c-bbed-2405bf7a2998","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.550641Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.394163Z","title":"Elections insights: Why iowa markets are beating polls in 2024 predictions","venue":null,"work_id":"55a4c9ad-1137-48f5-994a-1c89cc33d0d9","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":34,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.424067Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b8fe54801a5d710e0d0332a789340f68f8aaafb356f0e0b3cfd3f13bc5939318","observation_id":"8d19e4f0-3ffb-43a2-b992-222fd7aa611c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.469163Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.213210Z","title":"Behind biden's 2020 victory","venue":null,"work_id":"b7ff015e-7c6a-44ef-89ec-53e34ac91469","year":2020},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":35,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.501489Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:29c3b321f960be0cc6e8dc6b2c22c9b7f08a8c403bceec18fc5f66c997942a6e","observation_id":"000afe4a-fe29-4e23-82ea-89fe27dd6948","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.303645Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1016/j.jbef.2018.08.004","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Wash trades as a stock market manipulation tool","venue":"Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance","work_id":"32b8f8c2-7aaf-4dfc-b186-adc069f6ffae","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":36,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.628779Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7917bc64839b56eb30ef11da4f033502e5e32d5a42132ddcbf5dc5f3fbfc3fbb","observation_id":"b0b9fe14-f044-483e-b1be-0b39c9946abf","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:11.851641Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[{"edge_observation":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:20:21.884781+00:00","source":"paper_reference_links","state":"open"},"event_date":"2020-12-03","event_type":"correction","notice_doi":"10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100439","provenance":{"observed_at":"2026-07-11T03:11:46.707867+00:00","source":"crossref","source_record_id":"10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100439->10.1016/j.jbef.2018.08.004:correction"}}],"reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.068848Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"28aef612-9020-4650-9ad5-647d4c7d6324","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":37,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.715996Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7c694e04923c95228e7fc837627be4d54592bd52402635d5d6284a90e34a397d","observation_id":"de5c9783-6784-4600-9224-99d5b06d41f0","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:20.132510Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1093/poq/nfi068","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Jacobs and Robert Y","venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","work_id":"4d2c0fd9-2132-45b2-b842-c693211a3485","year":2005},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":38,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.786904Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:fd14a5ab216f3bb4c5580e6a132d9567a99a5b4093aec09759d660b5f18ba60a","observation_id":"265f73db-2f8c-45d0-9401-6af68cd13876","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:11.639943Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.841779Z","title":"\\ 16 billion will be spent in the 2024 election","venue":null,"work_id":"7b825651-d08d-43e9-9b27-095e197a1475","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":39,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.841250Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a3678a90bccb42b0762d210324230766c376a3aa18b6434b2bf5533e9951d9e4","observation_id":"b60dee06-8697-4501-8630-54f6b20c3304","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.959543Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1038/s41562-018-0315-6","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Election polling errors across time and space","venue":"Nature Human Behaviour","work_id":"d668c760-58df-4cd7-acd1-184c2abd5c1b","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":40,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:04.909205Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:49e6beccd169efb9cea53c18a9dda2bee93cf166c33a9837600c149076844657","observation_id":"196fad85-791d-4da7-9e83-4b24cd1b1e3b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:11.463553Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[{"edge_observation":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:20:20.684524+00:00","source":"paper_reference_links","state":"open"},"event_date":"2020-06-26","event_type":"correction","notice_doi":"10.1038/s41562-020-0914-x","provenance":{"observed_at":"2026-07-11T03:02:46.499832+00:00","source":"crossref","source_record_id":"10.1038/s41562-020-0914-x->10.1038/s41562-018-0315-6:correction"}}],"reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.697896Z","title":"Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline","venue":null,"work_id":"132ad39e-2aaa-4a08-ab8d-3c843c743b7b","year":2019},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":41,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.027506Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:fd878ad88c22e7e5e7c2db7b22642226e7b625492843c383cda4af7a9a431430","observation_id":"fe5f6c0d-31a6-405e-9b5b-1a6735135b76","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.767020Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.555458Z","title":"Key things to know about u.s","venue":null,"work_id":"1bb1028e-3e99-4cd2-bff9-e8f201df872d","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":42,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.121096Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f8e354c67959c0b683978bd14754bc2b12f309319f997687f1860bc94f5e4564","observation_id":"a440eb06-97ed-4035-8169-849787687409","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.622386Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1093/poq/nfx047","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"An evaluation of the 2016 election polls in the united states","venue":"Public Opinion Quarterly","work_id":"956dc293-8226-43a1-9dd8-2a3073f553e8","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":43,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.243385Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f5cbb497df7b07c61f4dddd8a11bfead293c16eb80fe56b3a7b21fe9b604cc5b","observation_id":"04690b26-9750-4a3c-9bf5-02041631f172","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:11.281669Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.404996Z","title":"How public polling has changed in the 21st century","venue":null,"work_id":"b8b7aef8-bbf4-4305-ae68-f5013e3e1e76","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":44,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.361154Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9bd4d42da56a3b4545083087b0b421cbe3fdb961f228bff3544b8029fba03f9b","observation_id":"d489c524-6ee1-4a25-b1bc-40dfc3f4f099","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.472837Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.246800Z","title":"How money affects elections","venue":null,"work_id":"7fea26b4-41c8-4872-9010-3d955df04ffc","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":45,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.433035Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:eefa4cdf5c55e10043fd5d44d3504dcd08f4364ffcfa15c546e02780df017fb5","observation_id":"5fedd323-48c6-48b5-8b09-e83f28acb974","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.323521Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.4324/9780203854150-17/social-psychology-wisdom-crowds-richard-larrick-albert-mannes-jack-soll","metadata_source":"doi_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:10.449414Z","title":"Larrick, Albert E","venue":null,"work_id":"6f825655-d9e0-44b2-8dc8-2d226033adba","year":2012},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":46,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.514011Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c4c4796c2699103b6b7abf520f824ff32323739fbcc42d6751fcff6e4d2ea076","observation_id":"d8cc04af-24a7-4413-a617-180b0cbca1f9","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:11.136195Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Lauderdale, Delia Bailey, Jack Blumenau, and Douglas Rivers","venue":"International Journal of Forecasting","work_id":"4529ccde-30f3-4c5a-8e06-2ffdd2bc9928","year":2020},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":47,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.578670Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:453ed7b0968ad18b4809e9b54895699635bbd41442b9b23aeb48f78bad72e855","observation_id":"636a9b0d-7d3b-4bb0-a740-c587f3f397e6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:10.243261Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[{"edge_observation":{"observed_at":"2026-08-07T06:34:42.342846+00:00","source":"paper_reference_links","state":"open"},"event_date":"2021-05-19","event_type":"correction","notice_doi":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.008","provenance":{"observed_at":"2026-07-11T03:16:39.250683+00:00","source":"crossref","source_record_id":"10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.01.008->10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.012:correction"}}],"reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1177/21582440241279659","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Money in Politics: How Does It Affect Election Outcomes? SAGE Open, 14 0 (4): 0 21582440241279659, October 2024","venue":"SAGE Open","work_id":"ad65cc05-a7d8-4b41-bafc-e1e62c722947","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":48,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.687734Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:4c546c0453b384fad5677b38ceb7c1e6de9a7e2d85db81ff7effbf356b24053a","observation_id":"4892527c-141f-4235-81a2-afaf127f8593","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:09.821137Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.081683Z","title":"Donald trump and kamala harris spend \\ 3.5bn in most expensive presidential election","venue":null,"work_id":"833c1eee-e376-4bee-83e1-8ed3a89f8b4e","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":49,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.855483Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:80a9d215131742cdce5055abef68732a1efed6082ebc379cc8705b2fbef56b57","observation_id":"70ed77de-0466-499d-916b-0fb98cf45c97","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:19.148827Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1177/00027642231166879","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Analyzing the effect of regional modality in polling surveys: A case study of the 2020 u.s","venue":"American Behavioral Scientist","work_id":"827b5916-59c7-413f-b109-8b3e88230e79","year":2020},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":50,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:05.923076Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:da767129a31866197138e91ce202996877e59f4eb189350f5d7aa847e404233e","observation_id":"323091e5-5f94-4974-bde2-fa46afb4005c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:09.475656Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.853586Z","title":"The presidential election, us social policy, and whether canadians should care","venue":null,"work_id":"c187d309-1094-4b25-b85c-d76ce6c2cdae","year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":51,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.047081Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:671d248728c87589f12beaadf43a7e6f4fb39e0a328644f073bd72aa43bfe5e6","observation_id":"975101bf-4e18-481a-8f7c-b4aff57a2cf7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.957018Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.640243Z","title":"Survey reveals 1 in 5 americans own crypto, with 76\\ CryptoSlate, April 2025","venue":null,"work_id":"d23eda84-8c22-4021-a76e-1e06b4ebd847","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":52,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.112561Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:d13415091f7c07e0b79963e8edab1c7517a4c4c06fb0b8bb89919630b3d9b519","observation_id":"8076eb9b-e936-4c4b-b828-462f4330290f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.752062Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.439540Z","title":"Us appeals court clears kalshi to restart elections betting","venue":null,"work_id":"bb10a23c-4694-4ce9-818a-48b89d411026","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":53,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.200751Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b6928321742cdc037b75289a1a192a8e160f4a8f7dad614223adb293d58a6d63","observation_id":"d237bc19-f3fe-43ed-a9e6-6da89e0e185b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.528777Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.264504Z","title":"Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state","venue":null,"work_id":"424c59a6-c477-47f1-ae0a-e35c922d3145","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":54,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.281873Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:d4c365626f918c679ff7428a7f4385dd8dc96782c6c4ae9072b9be78cb94e86c","observation_id":"ad9dab63-4fe0-420a-a477-e6a8e6cfe06e","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.349208Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.093082Z","title":"Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament","venue":null,"work_id":"00a8acca-1073-404a-a2b8-e6b70a084fc0","year":2014},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":55,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.459490Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:dba48b76e3fac07b660315e339e94a010dc0d437b2399dee0e8251d3aadb2f05","observation_id":"1450e251-94ce-46dd-9337-f7e4929b6dfe","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:18.158871Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.877955Z","title":"Comparing two types of online survey samples","venue":null,"work_id":"d0500f5a-2ddf-44e4-9051-b6d0d0ce4a58","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":56,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.518108Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7576a091d4b9c51ddd612e13e46469e52cb3a98e71563cd88da9c754857f2b4a","observation_id":"4182734b-bb30-480e-bf98-e3a6daa13893","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.986382Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.683376Z","title":"Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and hispanic adults","venue":null,"work_id":"17fce58a-53c7-43ca-a3d3-4eea4bc6b95a","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":57,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.593633Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:6abf520eaa0c7a5b323ef7c0df7781e0767e08dd846cd12e9d3401371a8026ba","observation_id":"574bea1d-cca6-436b-a435-ad2dec169ba4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.761933Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1073/pnas.1319946111","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Granger Morgan","venue":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","work_id":"7e001324-801d-4330-929e-4595aec91f86","year":2014},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":58,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.693600Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:78630251bba1d8ef72b902e21c6a47e589e4c2e63ecf5a2298a9a637b5bbd156","observation_id":"6e0bb387-6e08-4c53-9599-041cd3d116e2","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:09.313644Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.550050Z","title":"How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn't cnn business","venue":null,"work_id":"280434be-cbcc-4747-a248-f6505eeda742","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":59,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.776177Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ecb970d0ba7d056c6011644e2efabadff60cf47ccf3aaa91a9b2aad392e3e04d","observation_id":"f95758a6-98da-48d7-8358-85392bd116b6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.596917Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.385178Z","title":"The polls and their context","venue":null,"work_id":"a2763fee-3b5c-4b66-a42c-2de8a2ac573a","year":2015},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":60,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.829509Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:057bb48279d0773bb8623ad09f55564b06cf3833bc955cb0adc476d3ccce44a5","observation_id":"a551a576-e4cf-4071-8648-0d635103abdf","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.462491Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.221213Z","title":"How the u.s","venue":null,"work_id":"37ef3b09-7f90-4f7f-9eb1-289fe71a2a2f","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":61,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:06.976126Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:404833bdea164dafb921aebf59acbdd0492027037fd4977d55f6c0e8cdb23038","observation_id":"d1367796-a6c3-4921-8efb-ea628e1b7268","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.309674Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.038772Z","title":"Porter, and Paul Freedman","venue":null,"work_id":"297b91f1-3839-47e2-a3b5-74839f613897","year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":62,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.070049Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:d2731ac8b7a6d71e7737488a8ff4d96a2c167dd43d6ab7a62a5708c48db3f143","observation_id":"3e30d6e5-5263-477c-a691-17c2fa2a9386","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:17.134900Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.815079Z","title":"Jd vance says cryptocurrency can help everyday americans","venue":null,"work_id":"cb7d036a-bb71-4a74-893f-207f2bc86b74","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":63,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.156317Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:84b660276a011bdb03999102c49b5e46fc359a329625fbb5f6ab20b404510200","observation_id":"2bc3c252-31e0-409b-88b2-a2980e53a86f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.905497Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.621287Z","title":"What the 2024 polls got right --- and what they got wrong","venue":null,"work_id":"fb9d89f6-d791-494f-ab52-a8984dba361c","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":64,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.249485Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:0c9fc1b16edeccf28b5fefa03a1dd903703abd90d5ebf962cb78a93f7ad33b2f","observation_id":"52aef1b0-8578-48de-9083-7c79576e6dec","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.715620Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.445774Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"42a06b1f-66a5-4a2c-8ac1-e7147c08a2b4","year":2019},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":65,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.324326Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:17f5ddcf0da7e5ab0f97b7bd6e0c78d86a1f2ffc8667761010dd53530d185118","observation_id":"2eaf3944-9954-434a-b52a-1e83729921c5","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.514810Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.304674Z","title":"A mystery \\ 30 million wave of pro-trump bets has moved a popular prediction market, 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"aeea6b4b-dc41-4842-b03b-2cd4f6fbe5e7","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":66,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.435663Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:807b6cd1035c217d65e842962393495f43c74b346ff957b6a08e2725b11de4f7","observation_id":"9304969d-f91e-4ca7-aabb-04cb3656b066","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.390737Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.131781Z","title":"Three things to look for in any election poll","venue":null,"work_id":"59d546ae-c34b-4a5a-8682-f0b1324326f6","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":67,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.519923Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:4c6664077738c795168b65b4789104860128100ba88fa3e9172aee390b0244be","observation_id":"83bf04df-3440-4e8a-bcad-0aba7c99afc7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.231998Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.927224Z","title":"Ban the polls: Uk election strategists slam `inaccurate' voter surveys","venue":null,"work_id":"a05733e4-d828-47cc-9887-76beaabe1f99","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":68,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.685089Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:5264706ea7c1b5fa91a560c01f3b52d5d14a4f450071664b2d20851936b642a8","observation_id":"13a9a4f1-0026-4f90-a5a7-3584aa5b8add","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:16.052426Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.738844Z","title":"Political bias in prediction markets: Evidence from the u.s","venue":null,"work_id":"b1c65df0-9ae9-46f7-b6fd-9eebf85abc8e","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":69,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.753500Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a5778c39b54cb1ca193850d6e7f9cd71593f10e496ebb21b5f14944dd41ca306","observation_id":"a62b6737-9463-4fab-b9d2-b6c51ed1d69b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.836882Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.411745Z","title":"Trump's polymarket odds spike as elon musk touts presidential betting predictor","venue":null,"work_id":"b98222c3-7697-4bcb-8afe-b067102f7357","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":70,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.805054Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:cad3725afb123be47b8041d5e1c5828b1cf64dc23556a386c351693c5718f1cf","observation_id":"ee99ab48-b24e-4f69-aba2-011673418d74","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.540638Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.213952Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"175877fe-d9b1-4366-a141-c9380b2ca4cc","year":2006},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":71,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.886650Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ef74bac17a68a7f04bd7dbda26903db049f3d5e1aa7ba4dc4cbf719f4dc65c8e","observation_id":"20f3d118-e570-4562-90ef-f4c43f76e86a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.318549Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.062474Z","title":"Exclusive: Election betting site polymarket gives trump a 67\\ Fortune Crypto, October 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"e046fd32-b6d2-4fe6-89a8-83c6ee1abecd","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":72,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:07.985360Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:85989d071234fa77883f5fa250bbee7ac7187eac067b9680f44fe3770197d4c5","observation_id":"031ade35-a8a6-4bb0-a0a9-b22bc36310ee","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:15.138215Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.880859Z","title":"Scott and Hal R","venue":null,"work_id":"b0c47a2f-bf38-4545-b794-0c96c8a84ea9","year":2013},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":73,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.081150Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7e218464d32918365dbfa45d0f34b663c78ec5a0169b0a9c794a902fba5d5932","observation_id":"9fe9b9b2-ba5e-49ab-bcc4-a24371f1f466","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.961887Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.627328Z","title":"What's behind Trump's Surge in Prediction Markets? Silver Bulletin, October 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"55a44a1a-dd71-4199-a3c7-a986fcbe5759","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":74,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.181143Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:374f680eb314d1d7cb8df284c191fd2e81b7eb0bffba78b9da5894fd2fb88a12","observation_id":"df742fef-39a2-4e42-aa42-40242d095467","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.756824Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.461512Z","title":"Final silver bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast","venue":null,"work_id":"53aab276-55a0-4829-a0f5-ffbac4daba6b","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":75,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.263335Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:fe0a4db31866d27c4ee54b63dce8b17fbbb1f6425377954901cb3160f6cbebbb","observation_id":"237b9cb6-14f2-4eb7-b3db-864b48e204d9","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.557914Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1037/a0015145","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Soll and Richard P","venue":"Journal of Experimental Psychology Learning Memory and Cognition","work_id":"0bb50ac7-c6c5-41a7-8c84-6a324ae94987","year":2009},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":76,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.331384Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c2430ca2a3562b9c58655b49372ebfb5073cb7d5c06db08db45230e2203aadf7","observation_id":"262b75a4-e918-40ca-9309-d7c5b57ce6b5","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:09.172439Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"com/9122932","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.291370Z","title":"Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call---then came the fbi","venue":null,"work_id":"a7bc1f70-74b6-4070-91c0-031bbd2714ac","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":77,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.422115Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c4d4c02d24a75e8e0879f40381c34ae72fddf6a73723a2d2a8b33fbe59e10355","observation_id":"ebca1522-405f-44c9-94e3-f643eb5e3d0f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:13.356485Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.230488Z","title":"The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations","venue":null,"work_id":"e66c424b-55c8-474f-8b62-a1d55f19dcef","year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":78,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.499494Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:45da909ca36e5734da0daefbd193caa00284bcbf1bc13d18276a7b105dbf0f29","observation_id":"906e0f27-1d40-45ce-9518-38ae9e8976a4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.329267Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1177/107769907204900219","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Public opinion polling by newspapers in the presidential election campaign of 1824","venue":"Journalism Quarterly","work_id":"a900dc01-e337-4c2e-b673-020662ef7187","year":1972},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":79,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.582020Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c484c20f0bfe78929df88789e427a59f0db5e9ce06b851a44c73b90cf126dfdc","observation_id":"200b8952-acee-4844-802b-5eb40a0a16a1","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.992544Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.667984Z","title":"Prediction markets","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2004},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":80,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.667984Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7042c76fb43c5b3fe1c656c5c025c0841a1cfdd8c2e959d72f54f3d9f960c8bb","observation_id":"fd2cdcd1-d176-4dbf-92c5-e85b4697a56e","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.667984Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.063120Z","title":"The us presidential election shows the limits of the `science' of polling - impact of social sciences","venue":null,"work_id":"734bc664-4669-49f9-89ff-ae7dd8e75047","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?","version":1},"reference_index":81,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:08.760049Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.08921"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f2d85d201c466e2c331ccdcbe109f50346c50296f84fca9bbfd567193a0dca18","observation_id":"cce6bcbd-6eee-420a-aec8-b67d123c7c38","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:17:14.140979Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}}],"paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.08921","last_updated":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","latest_version":1,"primary_category":"stat.OT","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T18:07:23.039268Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-11T17:03:39Z","title":"Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?"},"reference_resolution":{"displayed":81,"state_counts":{"malformed_identifier":0,"metadata_mismatch":0,"parse_uncertain":0,"unresolved":9,"verified_exact":24,"verified_fuzzy":48},"total_outbound_references":81},"refusal":"A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.","schema":"pith.paper-citation-record.v1","standing_sources":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:58.91139+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-17T06:30:54.323127+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"thesis":"As of 17 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 81 of 81 outbound references and 1 inbound Pith citation observation for arXiv:2507.08921."}