{"as_of":"2026-08-15T21:35:00Z","caps":{"database_statements":6,"inbound":100,"outbound":100},"context_digest":"sha256:3e1c3c350b4312c98dfec60b8499859f489bf4e1330b3a906563c7f155facc86","coverage":[{"denominator":48,"lane":"reference_resolution","note":"Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.","records_observed":48,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z","state":"measured"},{"denominator":48,"lane":"standing_notices","note":"One-hop event checks from named stored sources.","records_observed":48,"source":"scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache","source_observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","state":"measured"},{"denominator":0,"lane":"inbound_itemization","note":"Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.","records_observed":0,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"},{"denominator":1,"lane":"external_citation_measurements","note":"A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.","records_observed":0,"source":"cited_works","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"}],"external_citation_measurements":[],"inbound":[],"links":{"evidence":"/evidence","html":"/paper/2507.23163/citation-record","integrity":"/paper/2507.23163/integrity","json":"/paper/2507.23163/citation-record.json","paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"outbound":[{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2312.06941","last_updated":"2024-05-17T06:35:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-15T10:16:38.244118Z","submitted_at":"2023-12-12T02:28:12Z","title":"Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI","version":2},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"2312.06941","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2312.06941","metadata_source":"pith","pith_arxiv_id":"2312.06941","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI","venue":"cs.LG","work_id":"e333844b-9569-42f0-8f1c-2d9b813d07c8","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":1,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.069090Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2312.06941","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:dd9e7f8960310e43f2e291c76c2913770768e45b0b60dd2fcd18868e1b152ba9","observation_id":"9c55e31d-543f-483b-9ae7-17966aa8f7ec","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.298300Z","resolver_source":"local_arxiv","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:47.495761Z","title":"Evaluation of arguments in weighted bipolar graphs","venue":null,"work_id":"15741f1a-6b80-41db-ae2c-14b43dab35eb","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":2,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.072721Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:285f62cc1caa77574bcfdd5ceb000ed5449660dea0cd64d485d8be56574122eb","observation_id":"2ed20022-6ed9-4848-a05d-0fbecb516fb8","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:47.563656Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:47.160404Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"50393299-10c5-4520-ae2f-45f52a4f8fe6","year":2001},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":3,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.076039Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:868da3bf25da4c4f969a9d1ce065fb4dff74b438c093836879d1234847ecdc4d","observation_id":"199e852e-23f9-4103-8e95-4d5f0ae807b6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:47.316170Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.079291Z","title":"Towards artificial argumentation","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2017},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":4,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.079291Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b93b3a47aa3d8ec4260a99914e3697d4bc7a5985fe58fdd8db5f27c03c46c770","observation_id":"90074b7f-dcea-4601-8d35-f856e7ff10a2","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.079291Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.838651Z","title":"Handbook of Formal Argumentation","venue":null,"work_id":"5f6e8431-bb90-438c-9a63-a7f016fbf309","year":2018},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":5,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.082478Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1a84e96eb4cb7c37d5681e399baacaa0e311f36ad44631b067bcb528e58ce5fa","observation_id":"9132dfc3-a7dd-4e7f-863b-254035a33c5c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:47.034488Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.484416Z","title":"From fine-grained properties to broad principles for gradual argumentation","venue":null,"work_id":"4a0b3274-4236-4e66-8731-0b9c6748ec7a","year":2019},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":6,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.085406Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:21535e4dc21c4355e24c283b6c16bd5d819c7eafbda034a5458aea038799bb36","observation_id":"9d5b404b-cfb6-4105-8b5b-3ae53cea5e12","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.630936Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.189315Z","title":"Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E","venue":null,"work_id":"559417f9-5601-4ebf-9375-db98ba22d269","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":7,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.088419Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a60c552cd60c5fc51c203fd66f697ed23ef34f234233bbf5e8271098837c0d63","observation_id":"9d0a072b-a05d-4de4-bdab-a337be493aeb","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.312327Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.910363Z","title":"Developing expert political judgment","venue":null,"work_id":"e8aab0b9-b4e2-49c4-ab6c-5dadcaddd7c4","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":8,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.091023Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:69b928296a7625c27a0a633e35f8aec436f1d3ef8675c527c4f253417ed3d924","observation_id":"e6e23831-4854-40e9-97fe-dad03a5b96b7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:46.062511Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2407.21783","last_updated":"2024-11-23T23:27:33Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T17:20:44.002518Z","submitted_at":"2024-07-31T17:54:27Z","title":"The Llama 3 Herd of Models","version":3},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2407.21783","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.093891Z","title":"The Llama 3 herd of models","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":9,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.093891Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2407.21783","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e4b8da26b07fb24515ff797aa3c4c523b61189717eff503988b524b0a7ebc95d","observation_id":"83c62ab1-8f10-4144-a0f0-160b824524af","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.093891Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"2018.0388","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.474170Z","title":"Budescu, David Mandel, and Mark Himmelstein","venue":null,"work_id":"bd1bcd41-0935-455c-8aaa-d09dfbdfc9b8","year":2019},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":10,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.097192Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:70b18280a580fb024f56b4a688bd217cf0c4ec98f8b13575c01621914f29c2d1","observation_id":"b35b41a2-8458-4745-982c-8cbcdea94202","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.494351Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1609/aaai.v39i14","metadata_source":"doi_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.272361Z","title":"Argumentative large language models for explainable and contestable claim verification","venue":null,"work_id":"1aee70e6-1091-4193-aeb3-03fb22b97dae","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":11,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.099606Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:df1054f7f437e8b32730083d0b683f1c2b43e9592ba87df58b611ff1ab799181","observation_id":"8953b05b-5481-4366-a905-bc94a6a4e5c7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.275000Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.102318Z","title":"Moran, Nicholas G","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":12,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.102318Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1342fd28e4f6b8b0fa5065adecd523bc866aaae36ca0c5c1d24da4f2fee49ba5","observation_id":"b3f86975-f6da-4fb7-ac21-abddcbd83478","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.102318Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"malformed_identifier"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.619126Z","title":"FORECAST2023: A forecast and reasoning corpus of argumentation structures","venue":null,"work_id":"8ac24c20-0ec8-4fe8-b64e-9578ae210165","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":13,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.104861Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:3ff2cc6a1652e459e1717ac94f19dd70cd61e4c1431cda4e65121999d013526b","observation_id":"04c3fe2e-a0f6-41a0-92c2-069da933428a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.736978Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.430740Z","title":"Argucast: A system for online multi-forecasting with gradual argumentation","venue":null,"work_id":"cbfc0843-fdff-4960-b599-e60a0eb8e76d","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":14,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.107203Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:3ce2a017c5b4e4eaaf5117529b1c0fc93e8a4e0c2d39bbd81180c3cd5b6d19ff","observation_id":"dfcfc3cd-debc-45d2-8000-474510ba3b12","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.539809Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.253008Z","title":"Argumentatively coherent judgmental forecasting","venue":null,"work_id":"d73d1911-5d96-4848-898e-f8628b88cffa","year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":15,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.109574Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ddb1f230aa590f34cfd88c270047adb30f4f45d647504fe62aa941c2c4d242f7","observation_id":"6b2090a2-ffd9-4094-a513-8033305c2a1c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.336196Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.086363Z","title":"Approaching human-level forecasting with language models","venue":null,"work_id":"581d98cc-0f19-4d97-8e17-a7239abea501","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":16,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.112001Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:65486f9fbb663b2f582ca0c615725284a59ce4f33f29c90821a194348a1c2539","observation_id":"9c627e5b-66a6-4ecd-aad2-f39598f9c702","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:45.169100Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.914867Z","title":"Ho, David V","venue":null,"work_id":"629e787a-f6c3-49a7-93e7-4216246fc960","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":17,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.114342Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:8202b454b3dc80db7569fb4e65679a057e4b77e6a83cefb83d18e452f2a11427","observation_id":"79deabec-7a6c-41ea-b603-f354ca433850","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.976985Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.706136Z","title":"Forecasting argumentation frameworks","venue":null,"work_id":"95f2c3e9-3b28-4de1-b7f7-15bc62ace9f6","year":2022},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":18,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.116745Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:8d577aac83a41053ad48a1547f3f541cb7df4f721cd4020ea9e2f5daa20e6027","observation_id":"de5cf6b9-33d8-475d-a504-6c45d9cacda6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.813917Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2310.06825","last_updated":"2023-10-10T17:54:58Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-06T02:11:23.670680Z","submitted_at":"2023-10-10T17:54:58Z","title":"Mistral 7B","version":1},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2310.06825","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.119036Z","title":"Jiang, Alexandre Sablayrolles, Arthur Mensch, Chris Bamford, Devendra Singh Chaplot, Diego de Las Casas, Florian Bressand, Gianna Lengyel, Guillaume Lample, Lucile Saulnier, et al","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":19,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.119036Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2310.06825","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:fad48d2d1d6ea847589843b9aa8eab02e08e4dc01e68d1362c00c0d67370f4b5","observation_id":"4a3f68f2-236e-418d-bc4d-45ba0ea92bd4","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.119036Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2401.04088","last_updated":"2024-01-08T18:47:34Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T19:43:49.936776Z","submitted_at":"2024-01-08T18:47:34Z","title":"Mixtral of Experts","version":1},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2401.04088","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.122006Z","title":"Jiang, Alexandre Sablayrolles, Antoine Roux, Arthur Mensch, Blanche Savary, Chris Bamford, Devendra Singh Chaplot, Diego de Las Casas, Emma Bou Hanna, Florian Bressand, et al","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":20,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.122006Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2401.04088","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:42f493eeb68baf6a773c66da460c0d0dd4710c592d264be2c98c049c828b9f6b","observation_id":"a7059f33-d98c-4ad4-b842-6fa6f2525e3d","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.122006Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.525433Z","title":"Zhang, Xiaoming Shi, Pin - Yu Chen, Yuxuan Liang, Yuan - Fang Li, Shirui Pan, and Qingsong Wen","venue":null,"work_id":"4df84523-c432-4d03-851e-97f423fcb588","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":21,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.124877Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e3eb35976a1b76f507492bb7761b253a4e494192d08c76f8ca16ecc0fd64acfa","observation_id":"f994a918-13d0-415d-9181-44d45f178529","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.591866Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.332403Z","title":"Thinking, Fast and Slow","venue":null,"work_id":"f331a4ad-338a-4981-8f9d-79200785bb2b","year":2011},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":22,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.127285Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:edc8deb80650dce299a451de1ac871458155f076ef438334b3345c7d07a4c623","observation_id":"1e8b5122-d3b8-40ad-a54e-872781a41562","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.407067Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":"2013.0279","doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.381751Z","title":"Karvetski, Kenneth C","venue":null,"work_id":"5a6752b8-8de2-4598-b046-5a8878fb330f","year":2013},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":23,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.129724Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:ef891af5ca5446c730cb9d4e4848d44a6dce264e7c2820e3e664bf689dd381ab","observation_id":"1eb1948a-75c1-4cf5-828f-4f51ceeb89d3","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.391568Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.140101Z","title":"Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T","venue":null,"work_id":"e59ad358-7ae3-40a5-9a4d-cd960d776fc0","year":2022},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":24,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.132205Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:c62fd4de115495394ad910a6abfc36e46e2660b6847e42d2e86b6280ede46817","observation_id":"ff918bd4-ffd0-4511-9902-63d4960293f7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.242043Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.960337Z","title":"Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years","venue":null,"work_id":"9af1fdcc-a9bb-4808-a79e-8d14372b106b","year":2006},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":25,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.134583Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:6c2cecd4d107727b70be3f97c9f82f6d47bffe19580210c0e59667a59dcb8bdb","observation_id":"bb92709e-26d7-4de4-9eda-31b45828ad4a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:44.025113Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.737619Z","title":"Argumentation mining: State of the art and emerging trends","venue":null,"work_id":"139c8354-6b84-461b-aacd-02d4501bc999","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":26,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.136989Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e12e0a16134f907b396aab5fc45fdb1ac95097993e34508f9f28f9e95680a303","observation_id":"f5f0fcbb-1b12-495b-89bb-3956e8c8b7b7","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.860034Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.546545Z","title":"Taming pre-trained LLMs for generalised time series forecasting via cross-modal knowledge distillation","venue":null,"work_id":"798c3173-4cc6-4a4f-b043-65751d473d73","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":27,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.139722Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:0b7d52e8542c31297f20c578347d102db8778506103133edcc3cf59522bfffe7","observation_id":"68ea4a77-0896-4666-b1f9-e07eb745f321","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.622067Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.380925Z","title":"Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages","venue":null,"work_id":"3eb5f24a-9492-468d-bbf8-64feb801dd94","year":1947},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":28,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.142300Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:b0cd4a952fb83675ebbaba6e21f926fe2c6c000624b0e1f74437114dd3b929c6","observation_id":"58b69c7e-0d83-4ff0-acde-4ef00b8df472","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.435730Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.130628Z","title":"Olivares, Geoffrey N \\' e giar, Ruijun Ma, O","venue":null,"work_id":"cddfac8e-d840-4f32-862b-ab6bf1b724a9","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":29,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.144848Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:295b32b40d1c02028f88d117323e9adc757edc6382701b7e7102b5394eb1a8fb","observation_id":"d923d633-a105-47fa-adc1-7ea654a1a282","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.197999Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.996758Z","title":"Gpt-4o mini: advancing cost-efficient intelligence, 2024","venue":null,"work_id":"b785fb62-5c13-4d20-91f9-b25300b772e4","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":30,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.147385Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:d8e4d1c9dced624e3da725162f0b3702900c3ddb3760e0a1fed102eaf915e579","observation_id":"503731ba-91f9-4824-9427-ceecc87a040d","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:43.083928Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.800242Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":"46371f67-d66c-4168-bd0a-f91d8088d1ad","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":31,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.149787Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:97cf7fec901364c8fb0324fbfa8ba4ad0cd5dd28c1051a868fe5025d839a1698","observation_id":"dbdd5f95-069f-4a47-bd0e-091204549276","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.912306Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.680056Z","title":"Rothschild, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, and Ekaterina Damer","venue":null,"work_id":"62539070-9466-47e5-8cff-4e7b1b35c22f","year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":32,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.152148Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:31d7138b1142c398627436c0f8caf0f39f7903960b7d53a9fd258494212d24c5","observation_id":"397854e3-364b-484d-ac81-a070f8705f63","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.755229Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1609/aaai.v35i7","metadata_source":"doi_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.242873Z","title":"Interpreting neural networks as quantitative argumentation frameworks","venue":null,"work_id":"74db3abd-79b3-4efb-9acc-3d126b5e1d9c","year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":33,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.154609Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a4da64d915234fa2d53a53e5634739a557d5cb894ac08a26fe94cfebb0d1c323","observation_id":"83aaf19d-1089-490c-be0d-ba1735ac8316","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.246510Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.509220Z","title":"Discontinuity-free decision support with quantitative argumentation debates","venue":null,"work_id":"03c82335-bb07-47f5-94b0-7a787ebf756c","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":34,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.157239Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:d8f2932b9b1926120b611a6b520643ebc2bd1517e28680218a8529315858dbb6","observation_id":"382d1a32-7812-4e1e-a588-b4d9362170fe","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.596716Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.318050Z","title":"Interactive explanations by conflict resolution via argumentative exchanges","venue":null,"work_id":"a3f193a4-bae0-42de-bcff-0ae05d0c59a2","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":35,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.159491Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:1554bcb50b82284206a0183acca98a9606d79d2be444cb4c01ef46614e95116a","observation_id":"966e2c2d-fd29-4abc-ab48-dd0d41d77ccf","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.391953Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.148560Z","title":"Werner, Konstantinos Benidis, Pedro Mercado, Jan Gasthaus, and Tim Januschowski","venue":null,"work_id":"182df452-4d32-41c0-9c4e-c3c49c1ddd01","year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":36,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.161952Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:56549e800ad4db4f013cc057e37629aef2a4d5f99f740efbcfbba7b0c3ca8437","observation_id":"e4334683-0d54-479e-a293-eb2acf9fbc2c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.227904Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.983968Z","title":"Coherent probabilistic forecasting of temporal hierarchies","venue":null,"work_id":"9fbecbd8-8a4e-49c2-87a7-ab9a43657d14","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":37,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.164507Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:52ee21c07ee46347175fc9f5d72ea4fdc3cc5bf30af7ef47f9a30179c8ddf2e5","observation_id":"89198267-8c0e-4e4c-a87f-e06038bcdae9","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:42.059665Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2310.13014","last_updated":"2023-10-17T17:58:17Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T05:47:24.363154Z","submitted_at":"2023-10-17T17:58:17Z","title":"Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament","version":1},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2310.13014","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.166925Z","title":null,"venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":38,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.166925Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2310.13014","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a8be8ef9860ea0787cc44f6855be46f8622b475b23f26f59fa83fb702b91c112","observation_id":"6e953722-06b9-48ab-bdcf-561e27305631","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.166925Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2402.07862","last_updated":"2024-08-22T13:57:30Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-14T03:30:05.797875Z","submitted_at":"2024-02-12T18:14:43Z","title":"AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy","version":2},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2402.07862","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.169619Z","title":"Park, Ezra Karger, and Philip E","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":39,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.169619Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2402.07862","citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:43a122c1896729f909b501fac12030f1fdf0af9651de2209dae3b273ab383c9c","observation_id":"a41e317f-25e1-4713-b2c7-d01f20d99e06","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.169619Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.815199Z","title":"Time series forecasting with LLMs : Understanding and enhancing model capabilities","venue":null,"work_id":"0bd5e228-3f6b-4e70-b1bf-060fb24a43d6","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":40,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.172402Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:dd551d92dbba4a0ce0b71ad740334beb4dca7f6817664501a59fc93c9514894c","observation_id":"2129a479-bb84-4a76-aea1-510cbf1da23c","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.900087Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.718515Z","title":"Tetlock and Dan Gardner","venue":null,"work_id":"43386bae-a8c0-4547-ab26-97c8d71e2b81","year":2016},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":41,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.175356Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:f74a2556184de23d05cd79e5da1a9298a225231bd86475115c095d2ee5172d9f","observation_id":"2f960cc3-3259-461a-822e-bc865536a838","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.765863Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.661654Z","title":"Tetlock, Barbara A","venue":null,"work_id":"c6362553-e99e-4c1e-99b3-9e1a61fb8262","year":2014},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":42,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.177746Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2715d091b71f6e160ad3b16cc7fe0dd691f4198d7cf7ef82ec21ed1d6284e94a","observation_id":"4c8a4aa5-4576-4b10-ac80-a01ca555c757","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.679161Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.626286Z","title":"Thomson, Andrew C","venue":null,"work_id":"bc85c3c5-5ad6-4625-a57c-55a524ae449c","year":2019},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":43,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.180032Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:7688c53722b700baef512900e402c1cc084f1b6cf160d47be01dfbafacc95d8b","observation_id":"295b7aa3-1c47-4317-a0e6-cd7d7df09bbb","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.640943Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.597941Z","title":"Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation","venue":null,"work_id":"92b2f82a-956b-4f24-ac1c-ea3a5a5721fa","year":2023},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":44,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.182625Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:8f9204742f34e5a698872d332a1c2b0d38c43c566cd34524fe1af75c609366ba","observation_id":"0a1914bf-3601-40a2-8a90-5c75eb9c32c6","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.606320Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":"10.1017/s0269888900007256","metadata_source":"openalex","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-10T05:30:23.456663Z","title":"Wallsten and David V","venue":"The Knowledge Engineering Review","work_id":"711eea06-d038-4f08-995c-0e60f10f9020","year":1995},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":45,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.184992Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9390fc3450eb1426189f69097c385c08a495400a20bf118bb858eccd589af98e","observation_id":"41264db7-2c2a-471a-b591-7843d5428bb5","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.219653Z","resolver_source":"doi","status":"verified_exact"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.555162Z","title":"Abbas, David V","venue":null,"work_id":"bdb86665-b033-45ed-8093-62ddf53aa4ad","year":2021},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":46,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.187481Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:85f69a6bbef4332260650257fe680c354cc2abfaec60acad1bdb8fef22346631","observation_id":"f5ce2837-dada-489d-965e-7ed17bd58840","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.573718Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":"raw_reference","pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.518395Z","title":"Retrieval-augmented generation for ai-generated content: A survey","venue":null,"work_id":"d8539d70-481c-4083-bcee-23b3911e47d7","year":2024},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":47,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.189807Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:a78c8941af25c79811f7c03f44c3737421eb9696ba1515bc1388ae2c9f8359a4","observation_id":"9ddcbbfc-f6c6-4097-b4d4-ba8da584c841","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.533345Z","resolver_source":"raw_fallback","status":"verified_fuzzy"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"observation":"No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00.","reason":null,"source_receipts":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"state":"measured"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z","title":"write newline","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting","version":2},"reference_index":48,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2507.23163"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2b70882fbbb913a72910ac373c7c1a1d9c775cd4d45d93f6bcba2d72b91935cb","observation_id":"ec811cdd-e183-4ac2-90ba-c6b42c59c05f","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}}],"paper":{"arxiv_id":"2507.23163","last_updated":"2025-08-25T15:30:19Z","latest_version":2,"primary_category":"cs.AI","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-13T08:12:59.189537Z","submitted_at":"2025-07-30T23:58:37Z","title":"Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting"},"reference_resolution":{"displayed":48,"state_counts":{"malformed_identifier":1,"metadata_mismatch":0,"parse_uncertain":0,"unresolved":9,"verified_exact":6,"verified_fuzzy":32},"total_outbound_references":48},"refusal":"A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.","schema":"pith.paper-citation-record.v1","standing_sources":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:42.880941+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-15T06:32:39.529945+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"thesis":"As of 15 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 48 of 48 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2507.23163."}