{"as_of":"2026-08-09T09:17:00Z","caps":{"database_statements":6,"inbound":100,"outbound":100},"context_digest":"sha256:f160ecca65f7709309e90b1118f024e285060bbab046101854308e6b12d6ebbf","coverage":[{"denominator":9,"lane":"reference_resolution","note":"Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.","records_observed":9,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","state":"measured"},{"denominator":9,"lane":"standing_notices","note":"One-hop event checks from named stored sources.","records_observed":9,"source":"scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache","source_observed_at":"2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00","state":"measured"},{"denominator":0,"lane":"inbound_itemization","note":"Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.","records_observed":0,"source":"paper_references, paper_reference_links","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"},{"denominator":1,"lane":"external_citation_measurements","note":"A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.","records_observed":0,"source":"cited_works","source_observed_at":null,"state":"measured"}],"external_citation_measurements":[],"inbound":[],"links":{"evidence":"/evidence","html":"/paper/2607.03015/citation-record","integrity":"/paper/2607.03015/integrity","json":"/paper/2607.03015/citation-record.json","paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"outbound":[{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2409.19839","last_updated":"2025-02-28T12:35:34Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-06T19:24:12.811792Z","submitted_at":"2024-09-30T00:41:51Z","title":"ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities","version":5},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2409.19839","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.19839 , year=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":1,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2409.19839","citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:e7c40096d37deeb054679ea098b7a21c5e2f919323b22db00a420fb5525824bd","observation_id":"9ac5225e-5268-4396-bbbb-6a47d39e0bb0","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"2025 , url=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":2,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:77b1127458065d429dfee89c60f06302f21680d2ffaa67ce77e840ce6929fd4e","observation_id":"d989f460-dab2-427e-85a6-c5e7829be3bf","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":3,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2b8f892d29b4df8fd8f5b02b956b95b9e1a38aa00ed9f6b6030cd6594c0a3928","observation_id":"d50c295b-dd23-4fcd-b4a4-6279ab188239","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"The Losing Winner: An","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2025},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":4,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:12186b6ac224d3f66dd590987d54fe49810c0dbd103d270d375276b29d0b1148","observation_id":"2981f381-9c2c-4bd9-97fc-2242956961a9","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"Prediction Arena: Benchmarking","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2026},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":5,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:6656a76e439174d7f95449cb857fb52f28625329079ccf9f438e16601c8bddea","observation_id":"7549864d-200e-4377-834b-e8cda058673d","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"PolyBench: Benchmarking","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":2026},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":6,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:bf4a475c51fca87e82120d81a3edabb09c9a190ae65254608e2e5857cceb4529","observation_id":"c8f6097d-ca18-4237-98b1-66e6d854616e","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2604.18576","last_updated":"2026-07-12T18:34:47Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-16T23:18:42.403825Z","submitted_at":"2026-04-20T17:57:51Z","title":"Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs","version":4},"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":"2604.18576","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.18576 , year=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":null},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":7,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"cited_paper":"/paper/2604.18576","citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:615883f5f1d5f5f622bc817304c3393fe65296d6f0efb85ce18db717560eacec","observation_id":"1e2c03cc-597a-4473-ad88-b1747c28be93","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"Monthly Weather Review , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1950},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":8,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:9ca3992ed95fa6823edeeabc1e96f124d0698e742f65c9d1398fef0ba2e6503b","observation_id":"daa81c6a-0afb-4c12-b437-f6a5842f307b","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}},{"citation":{"cited_paper":null,"cited_work":{"arxiv_id":null,"doi":null,"metadata_source":null,"pith_arxiv_id":null,"snapshot_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","title":"The Bell System Technical Journal , volume=","venue":null,"work_id":null,"year":1956},"citing_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents","version":1},"reference_index":9,"source":"arxiv_source","source_observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z"},"links":{"citing_paper":"/paper/2607.03015"},"observation_digest":"sha256:2ca84a2aef1e142edef85b310b31533a0c343321514ce1448bb9feefdfffaf58","observation_id":"f1fa4d73-bce7-44d8-aa65-5327e1b9859a","resolution":{"observed_at":"2026-07-12T05:27:20.387540Z","resolver_source":null,"status":"unresolved"},"standing_notice":{"events":[],"reason":"canonical_work_link_unavailable","source_receipts":[],"state":"unavailable"}}],"paper":{"arxiv_id":"2607.03015","last_updated":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","latest_version":1,"primary_category":"cs.AI","snapshot_observed_at":"2026-08-07T16:49:56.521984Z","submitted_at":"2026-07-03T06:49:48Z","title":"Beyond Forecasting: The Belief-to-Trade Layer in Prediction-Market Agents"},"reference_resolution":{"displayed":9,"state_counts":{"malformed_identifier":0,"metadata_mismatch":0,"parse_uncertain":0,"unresolved":9,"verified_exact":0,"verified_fuzzy":0},"total_outbound_references":9},"refusal":"A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.","schema":"pith.paper-citation-record.v1","standing_sources":[{"observed_at":"2026-08-09T06:31:02.800959+00:00","source":"crossref"},{"observed_at":"2026-08-09T06:30:57.326959+00:00","source":"retraction_watch"}],"thesis":"As of 9 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 9 of 9 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2607.03015."}