{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2021:25IGGRPM76AROJJLWDGEPD35W7","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"88d0ea99da493309b9e8004370501d25681c103bf31292750c75f24ad323489b","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2021-04-14T12:38:27Z","title_canon_sha256":"803fd898f215a7d4f2d5d1140cbf73284c973f958aed9b112a271105a2836b58"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2104.06819","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2104.06819","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2104.06819v1","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2104.06819","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"25IGGRPM76AR","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"25IGGRPM76AROJJL","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"25IGGRPM","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:5382a3c52aad5a5197e832538ebce72cf2d37ea92eb9077c4f1f9cfb20927b8b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2104.06819/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"This paper presents two novel approaches for uncertainty estimation adapted and extended for the multi-link bus travel time problem. The uncertainty is modeled directly as part of recurrent artificial neural networks, but using two fundamentally different approaches: one based on Deep Quantile Regression (DQR) and the other on Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks (BRNN). Both models predict multiple time steps into the future, but handle the time-dependent uncertainty estimation differently. We present a sampling technique in order to aggregate quantile estimates for link level travel time to yi","authors_text":"Anders Parslov, Filipe Rodrigues, Niklas Christoffer Petersen","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2021-04-14T12:38:27Z","title":"Short-term bus travel time prediction for transfer synchronization with intelligent uncertainty handling"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2104.06819","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:37a566abf01589e07ddabd7e47c945657a39bad609c655277276c9d91d55c57d","target":"record","created_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"88d0ea99da493309b9e8004370501d25681c103bf31292750c75f24ad323489b","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ML"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"cs.LG","submitted_at":"2021-04-14T12:38:27Z","title_canon_sha256":"803fd898f215a7d4f2d5d1140cbf73284c973f958aed9b112a271105a2836b58"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2104.06819","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"d7506345ecff8117252bb0cc478f7db7f02ed3c32a767e22c39dba0bf254f188","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"d7506345ecff8117252bb0cc478f7db7f02ed3c32a767e22c39dba0bf254f188","first_computed_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09.784148Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09.784148Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"zJp1iTZ0EjQjnWV06S9i/ig8BulQ2EITn0D01A6y7CE0bprB72hDbDG0dRaerhUZbMsYZSM/4ZPiXi6D+jnUDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-07-05T02:32:09.784567Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2104.06819","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:37a566abf01589e07ddabd7e47c945657a39bad609c655277276c9d91d55c57d","sha256:5382a3c52aad5a5197e832538ebce72cf2d37ea92eb9077c4f1f9cfb20927b8b"],"state_sha256":"5d1c85972f4043ad4b1c3f92ebdf26b4327b65cb38e9613cb29ae5e2ada2b9dc"}