{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:5FSX62J3GAHCR7WJPEJSV2QDA7","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a6f8504d742ab6536dc8dacc71b553fc960a466a7c8402bff471f84bf1dbfad2","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.CD","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2013-05-15T17:01:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c48ac49c913a7130938b5a386cf1b5f5d5758166e12e08b441382997de6ebf84"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1305.3544","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1305.3544","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1305.3544v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1305.3544","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"5FSX62J3GAHC","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"5FSX62J3GAHCR7WJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"5FSX62J3","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:34Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:1427bdfe8e7ab0fc2a5705b8bda09f7710c50ab9d4ee5548fc6f992069ef13e1","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Estimating population models from uncertain observations is an important problem in ecology. Perretti et al. observed that standard Bayesian state-space solutions to this problem may provide biased parameter estimates when the underlying dynamics are chaotic. Consequently, forecasts based on these estimates showed poor predictive accuracy compared to simple \"model-free\" methods, which lead Perretti et al. to conclude that \"Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data\". However, a simple modification of the statistical methods also suffice","authors_text":"Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Hartig","cross_cats":["nlin.CD","stat.AP"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2013-05-15T17:01:13Z","title":"Does \"model-free\" forecasting really outperform the \"true\" model? A reply to Perretti et al"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1305.3544","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:5e38e9a07d2e66d2af817cdf921fb883c1f17c85de260ff56f50f79e44ce6776","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"a6f8504d742ab6536dc8dacc71b553fc960a466a7c8402bff471f84bf1dbfad2","cross_cats_sorted":["nlin.CD","stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2013-05-15T17:01:13Z","title_canon_sha256":"c48ac49c913a7130938b5a386cf1b5f5d5758166e12e08b441382997de6ebf84"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1305.3544","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"e9657f693b300e28fec979132aea0307ca70757db581e09fcd84bc8acb6480e0","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"e9657f693b300e28fec979132aea0307ca70757db581e09fcd84bc8acb6480e0","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.090152Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.090152Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"deMblD1/AJHsXBSXuCDErZEdxA7E7CpKLc009tjdvZjUvrkLMKGoJ1CwAHOwO/kQLYnwLNyCN9/7k/nojBR9Bw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:08:59.090642Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1305.3544","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:5e38e9a07d2e66d2af817cdf921fb883c1f17c85de260ff56f50f79e44ce6776","sha256:1427bdfe8e7ab0fc2a5705b8bda09f7710c50ab9d4ee5548fc6f992069ef13e1"],"state_sha256":"9435b6dfc645d684a14a7956e2d8446bcc13b315dc54d2c7432de6e1f9f3298e"}