{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE","short_pith_number":"pith:62ITOUEQ","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"987df8b3a593dcaa83029f34e03b4c71d1c81c910b8c9de160b8c9adb9fc4d53","abstract_canon_sha256":"5ae6a4e6c18ee018921437d19c750e496f7e02310d7411207b33c3962462eccd"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f6913750907b5a6c1c92b657c4c622513598c2d053eea6cf58188fe798278e77","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2606.19642","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.19642","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.19642v1","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.19642","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"62ITOUEQPNNG","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"62ITOUEQPNNGYHES","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"62ITOUEQ","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"987df8b3a593dcaa83029f34e03b4c71d1c81c910b8c9de160b8c9adb9fc4d53","abstract_canon_sha256":"5ae6a4e6c18ee018921437d19c750e496f7e02310d7411207b33c3962462eccd"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"f6913750907b5a6c1c92b657c4c622513598c2d053eea6cf58188fe798278e77","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093997Z","signature_b64":"4y37Rm6tZJtnhPBbqO9fp8Lp7Od+lBVvgH9oe4Sl5rLswxjqlSp3ZRPsj8SQ67RwZgpUQoA2fqD3HI4T73X1DQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"f6913750907b5a6c1c92b657c4c622513598c2d053eea6cf58188fe798278e77","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093652Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093652Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2606.19642","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"hDzhcnjqVL0AGgeDQSwd/ErVVmzZQI4iIpEmTTOsZvJYYgWb/HALLQahLr/PzYUxfwaYfdb+8uqd/P2DNBphBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T15:54:15.871837Z"},"content_sha256":"67b8d0f2e18f6f2453e96142a77f01572cb24c187ccfecaeecdb236d8fd65f7c","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:67b8d0f2e18f6f2453e96142a77f01572cb24c187ccfecaeecdb236d8fd65f7c"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2026:62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Anna Asch, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Raphael Rossellini, Rebecca Willett","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","abstract_excerpt":"Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how well ensemble forecasts approximate the unknown statistical distribution of future states. AI models facilitate larger ensembles and are trained with probabilistic considerations, ideally leading to better uncertainty quantification. Forecasts from these state-of-the-art models are often considered well-calibrated. However, here we show that the statistical coverage of such models, the ultimate measure of calibration,"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.19642/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"qqYp6AG8+Spzo+0trsMXbpokyuxyoQL4rFXdpAPxocGJIMmGjzBqlbM5AXEJlFv/t6jjXEKmkoQqyolECSnzCA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T15:54:15.872209Z"},"content_sha256":"9f7231982e2353a230927da48314f74534af8fde4ed8be9d3ba8741e7089bb6b","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:9f7231982e2353a230927da48314f74534af8fde4ed8be9d3ba8741e7089bb6b"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-27T15:54:15Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:62ITOUEQPNNGYHESWZL4JRRCKE","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5ae6a4e6c18ee018921437d19c750e496f7e02310d7411207b33c3962462eccd","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","title_canon_sha256":"987df8b3a593dcaa83029f34e03b4c71d1c81c910b8c9de160b8c9adb9fc4d53"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.19642","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.19642v1","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.19642","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"62ITOUEQPNNG","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"62ITOUEQPNNGYHES","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"62ITOUEQ","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:9f7231982e2353a230927da48314f74534af8fde4ed8be9d3ba8741e7089bb6b","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.19642/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how well ensemble forecasts approximate the unknown statistical distribution of future states. AI models facilitate larger ensembles and are trained with probabilistic considerations, ideally leading to better uncertainty quantification. Forecasts from these state-of-the-art models are often considered well-calibrated. However, here we show that the statistical coverage of such models, the ultimate measure of calibration,","authors_text":"Anna Asch, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Raphael Rossellini, Rebecca Willett","cross_cats":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","title":"Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:67b8d0f2e18f6f2453e96142a77f01572cb24c187ccfecaeecdb236d8fd65f7c","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"5ae6a4e6c18ee018921437d19c750e496f7e02310d7411207b33c3962462eccd","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","submitted_at":"2026-06-17T22:41:20Z","title_canon_sha256":"987df8b3a593dcaa83029f34e03b4c71d1c81c910b8c9de160b8c9adb9fc4d53"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.19642","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"f6913750907b5a6c1c92b657c4c622513598c2d053eea6cf58188fe798278e77","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"f6913750907b5a6c1c92b657c4c622513598c2d053eea6cf58188fe798278e77","first_computed_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093652Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093652Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"4y37Rm6tZJtnhPBbqO9fp8Lp7Od+lBVvgH9oe4Sl5rLswxjqlSp3ZRPsj8SQ67RwZgpUQoA2fqD3HI4T73X1DQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-19T16:12:31.093997Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.19642","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:67b8d0f2e18f6f2453e96142a77f01572cb24c187ccfecaeecdb236d8fd65f7c","sha256:9f7231982e2353a230927da48314f74534af8fde4ed8be9d3ba8741e7089bb6b"],"state_sha256":"4111471154d7b7c87f46e7a9e8a2f30ef948595d79dfbb45f07dbe30f44618ad"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"U0mHABmNmo1apeR4C2y9DQtK7CSQvAmzbMiBFdodDF1Dy1QW5UST+o3k2iEDUmuv/N4W/a5iecMr9cy6KRfYCQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T15:54:15.874165Z","bundle_sha256":"5a5cdf3a812c3fe503cfdac13e468ff49b527a2decec2858c266408e5e660826"}}