{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2023:DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","short_pith_number":"pith:DSGTLEN5","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7","abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"2312.04110","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2312.04110v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFST","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2023:DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7","abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.198385Z","signature_b64":"AdfLIBTU31SqQjZOaLI8uwpn/OBJLmrDmMR7mKYGO3+6nXoif5ZyVstOh/aOfbchppJVojCOaKL9zispc8LrBQ==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"2312.04110","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"CrzrI2yOXCZ3sVB23bamnNUEQYayUsCykC0SMLLD3gOLsRVLI6hHZWOLV6StQXBVgGh+badFv2+aBmRND4/ZBw==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T05:42:53.942646Z"},"content_sha256":"58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2023:DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Jagpreet Chhatwal, Turgay Ayer, Zhaowei She, Zilong Wang","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","abstract_excerpt":"The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we provide a transfer learning framework, which we call Transfer Learning Random Forest (TLRF), for "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"rpbaIOQEuwsqLGE6jOQ1z6knj/SIETknhotCzFvaSdzzYTY54GTgWTfjyZ6mXWRTfzObC92Xbwc2JEdVhYa1AQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T05:42:53.942990Z"},"content_sha256":"22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-27T05:42:53Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2023:DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2312.04110v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFST","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we provide a transfer learning framework, which we call Transfer Learning Random Forest (TLRF), for ","authors_text":"Jagpreet Chhatwal, Turgay Ayer, Zhaowei She, Zilong Wang","cross_cats":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title":"Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"AdfLIBTU31SqQjZOaLI8uwpn/OBJLmrDmMR7mKYGO3+6nXoif5ZyVstOh/aOfbchppJVojCOaKL9zispc8LrBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.198385Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2312.04110","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e","sha256:22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5"],"state_sha256":"63bb5e9e429e7009f7b4a2390179f91aba2540061fc7aa08b28ecd1bd7710ce3"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"4p9VavfdZHUzPfGSB8QtFnmHCL0XqrjP6UPSzLOdiirxI40wMtuag4VQgdINJZ+RpiJmWPuHdsa+Lqy7jh7qAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T05:42:53.944892Z","bundle_sha256":"5618dc690fe42485bd1a6c0046ead30fe13fbc05fb914fe0b8adfebb954e366c"}}