{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2023:DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMPF6E4ENM227","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2312.04110v2","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2312.04110","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFST","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5DFSTMHMP","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"DSGTLEN5","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:33Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we provide a transfer learning framework, which we call Transfer Learning Random Forest (TLRF), for ","authors_text":"Jagpreet Chhatwal, Turgay Ayer, Zhaowei She, Zilong Wang","cross_cats":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title":"Small Area Estimation of Case Growths for Timely COVID-19 Outbreak Detection"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"4e056c79cdd4ec866a8904593ae7de2712619fb8209a3444448d5bc091a8bae8","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG","physics.soc-ph"],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2023-12-07T07:53:00Z","title_canon_sha256":"31d662d1547764b6fe52a78cbf21a61c00e427668597863431248f2703655bb7"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2312.04110","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"1c8d3591bd1965361d8f2f89c2359ad7e7953006d4c56f95ecef7751fea44fb5","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.197485Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"AdfLIBTU31SqQjZOaLI8uwpn/OBJLmrDmMR7mKYGO3+6nXoif5ZyVstOh/aOfbchppJVojCOaKL9zispc8LrBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:09:47.198385Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2312.04110","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:58c12da96c74f44207611bf2ef00d2c1e4aa104ba2f7caf6b2cf6b03047f586e","sha256:22e4672d45ae53d55a748b083a2842f8a3c145b69bd6e239792072c02ad0a3e5"],"state_sha256":"63bb5e9e429e7009f7b4a2390179f91aba2540061fc7aa08b28ecd1bd7710ce3"}