{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO","short_pith_number":"pith:F5PCGDTG","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"60dbc3ec0e88d479bc58caa1fcfcd804aa05ff36acffc3a64c28596378b26bd9","abstract_canon_sha256":"63cdba5e5071993a2d62cc295ebc637262eb86c1a49c89c6d8ddcaa43e8c5903"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"2f5e230e6621ceda23add9ea9da1853b961f9f3fe8ef6e1a63329e469e21da63","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1508.01912","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1508.01912","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1508.01912v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1508.01912","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"F5PCGDTGEHHN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"F5PCGDTG","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"60dbc3ec0e88d479bc58caa1fcfcd804aa05ff36acffc3a64c28596378b26bd9","abstract_canon_sha256":"63cdba5e5071993a2d62cc295ebc637262eb86c1a49c89c6d8ddcaa43e8c5903"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"2f5e230e6621ceda23add9ea9da1853b961f9f3fe8ef6e1a63329e469e21da63","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610647Z","signature_b64":"V/7FEMM6wIXiVll9MNHAlS3djQfAB8ZRb1n2neDf9xh6VQpzdqfcdlhioV6z1BxBnjDaF4EbNP6N76H0PsF+Dw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"2f5e230e6621ceda23add9ea9da1853b961f9f3fe8ef6e1a63329e469e21da63","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610025Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610025Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1508.01912","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"NEbvP6u/QgzM8+ur8cP+2GHnaOHEgs77uFRAfZD2YvKE1Uyd5hhSbuXggFrH6iIGoAXwoFZS42AJO8vDn6TwAg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-24T04:50:19.133035Z"},"content_sha256":"07dba3535597dde323cc5657945698336988ac3ef274887aa8b7308d2a64d7a7","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:07dba3535597dde323cc5657945698336988ac3ef274887aa8b7308d2a64d7a7"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2015:F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Semi-quantitative predictions for the Polish parliamentary elections (October 25, 2015) based on the Emotion/Information/Opinion mode","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"Pawel Sobkowicz","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","abstract_excerpt":"Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties."},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"MSpxi79tMBZyOTafkU4Eao43BX8uQgbTMO6dmMCCGJaPjPgaHWEHwJQ6CKwpuRj64/mr7bgNy4YAWtTfKFRoBg==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-24T04:50:19.133386Z"},"content_sha256":"e7a125016b3a12d4fcb83cd4471e954c9588abe0663c521925d3a63fca4d5b90","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:e7a125016b3a12d4fcb83cd4471e954c9588abe0663c521925d3a63fca4d5b90"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-24T04:50:19Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2015:F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N3HVJ3IMFHO","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"63cdba5e5071993a2d62cc295ebc637262eb86c1a49c89c6d8ddcaa43e8c5903","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"60dbc3ec0e88d479bc58caa1fcfcd804aa05ff36acffc3a64c28596378b26bd9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1508.01912","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1508.01912v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1508.01912","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"F5PCGDTGEHHN","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"F5PCGDTGEHHNUI5N","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"F5PCGDTG","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:19Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:e7a125016b3a12d4fcb83cd4471e954c9588abe0663c521925d3a63fca4d5b90","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.","authors_text":"Pawel Sobkowicz","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","title":"Semi-quantitative predictions for the Polish parliamentary elections (October 25, 2015) based on the Emotion/Information/Opinion mode"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:07dba3535597dde323cc5657945698336988ac3ef274887aa8b7308d2a64d7a7","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"63cdba5e5071993a2d62cc295ebc637262eb86c1a49c89c6d8ddcaa43e8c5903","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","submitted_at":"2015-08-08T14:48:50Z","title_canon_sha256":"60dbc3ec0e88d479bc58caa1fcfcd804aa05ff36acffc3a64c28596378b26bd9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1508.01912","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"2f5e230e6621ceda23add9ea9da1853b961f9f3fe8ef6e1a63329e469e21da63","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"2f5e230e6621ceda23add9ea9da1853b961f9f3fe8ef6e1a63329e469e21da63","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610025Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610025Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"V/7FEMM6wIXiVll9MNHAlS3djQfAB8ZRb1n2neDf9xh6VQpzdqfcdlhioV6z1BxBnjDaF4EbNP6N76H0PsF+Dw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:35:37.610647Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1508.01912","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:07dba3535597dde323cc5657945698336988ac3ef274887aa8b7308d2a64d7a7","sha256:e7a125016b3a12d4fcb83cd4471e954c9588abe0663c521925d3a63fca4d5b90"],"state_sha256":"b9096e1ea4184173d35a86d473ce4ac77f7d6512325fbe926e564d186635e821"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"UpjsLDSJ6dQfuQonB6DJ8Z9nYa0FaYulbZ11uM26Z7akcv8YrsZO+0M05Qx8BFxe04bqGg5ImoztUllHfIIhAA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-24T04:50:19.135252Z","bundle_sha256":"c0351ecf0789abb87942edd188b2621caf9cad18a33ed5bde90e46fbdf1474c9"}}