{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2013:GF5S6JFV4RKJ6TH36DYOFXFBBI","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"192a1c1a53341d47ac9a4195f1d1524916a0297735a7df3a1ca2f5cf309751ef","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2013-09-17T00:56:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"f5e0409dd809c6d2c00735d2e2abf54d88b54d1d51d6cf4e0451a79060371fef"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1309.4144","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1309.4144","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1309.4144v4","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1309.4144","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GF5S6JFV4RKJ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GF5S6JFV4RKJ6TH3","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:45Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GF5S6JFV","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:45Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:644bd2ab78573de8dfb426ff154988ea9e3d9f9a5de7cbce67de19131e67f7ba","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Lung tumor tracking for radiotherapy requires real-time, multiple-step ahead forecasting of a quasi-periodic time series recording instantaneous tumor locations. We introduce a location-mixture autoregressive (LMAR) process that admits multimodal conditional distributions, fast approximate inference using the EM algorithm and accurate multiple-step ahead predictive distributions. LMAR outperforms several commonly used methods in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy using clinical data from lung tumor patients. With its superior predictive performance and real-time computation, the LMAR m","authors_text":"Daniel Cervone, Debdeep Pati, John Henry Lewis, Natesh S. Pillai, Ross Berbeco","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2013-09-17T00:56:42Z","title":"A location-mixture autoregressive model for online forecasting of lung tumor motion"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1309.4144","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:efbb82837fb206d34f334483a181797abe4ee26226dec0fcefc677fa98690e27","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"192a1c1a53341d47ac9a4195f1d1524916a0297735a7df3a1ca2f5cf309751ef","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.AP"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2013-09-17T00:56:42Z","title_canon_sha256":"f5e0409dd809c6d2c00735d2e2abf54d88b54d1d51d6cf4e0451a79060371fef"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1309.4144","kind":"arxiv","version":4}},"canonical_sha256":"317b2f24b5e4549f4cfbf0f0e2dca10a388ec6c52282702f180a0ff2b1dd8f59","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"317b2f24b5e4549f4cfbf0f0e2dca10a388ec6c52282702f180a0ff2b1dd8f59","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37.402791Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37.402791Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"8PIj6FUBmD+uzfstVpApp+10ORJOw9xUFZoEjtrzpLJR26biX01dp01KJ0HBSmoWaENk9Qk43Hw4xMWLaY4UBQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:38:37.403496Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1309.4144","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":4}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:efbb82837fb206d34f334483a181797abe4ee26226dec0fcefc677fa98690e27","sha256:644bd2ab78573de8dfb426ff154988ea9e3d9f9a5de7cbce67de19131e67f7ba"],"state_sha256":"3bc56bd6ea4970c60e900e1ce205b527b4e1458f0d8ddb6b78b21c584fcd937f"}