{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG","short_pith_number":"pith:GQMTMV65","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"a3459c02d2ab2c6e634f2880c8855e43a3804d2745cb7feaa977b3e15cf831b9","abstract_canon_sha256":"9803357275ca90798ad81b0465ee559ce948006e867925a9f45690f3e44b899d"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"34193657ddaa648ff018e1a0497b0b61b5e0c93f610acec9bbd9ebff409447bc","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1810.06433","version":2},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1810.06433","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1810.06433v2","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1810.06433","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GQMTMV65VJSI","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GQMTMV65VJSI74AY","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GQMTMV65","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"title_canon_sha256":"a3459c02d2ab2c6e634f2880c8855e43a3804d2745cb7feaa977b3e15cf831b9","abstract_canon_sha256":"9803357275ca90798ad81b0465ee559ce948006e867925a9f45690f3e44b899d"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"34193657ddaa648ff018e1a0497b0b61b5e0c93f610acec9bbd9ebff409447bc","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.792912Z","signature_b64":"/MNb6bpxhXYimwNof1s5oO0SzhBJOxzmS2UCMjyj6eOh1CBSpzCoawbhl7OkNkvKwwiNh/d9RsBEdj1C2j74Dg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"34193657ddaa648ff018e1a0497b0b61b5e0c93f610acec9bbd9ebff409447bc","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.791670Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.791670Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1810.06433","source_version":2,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"5rZgisre7FAalFlCC1aM6HU+32aMp5W3Yat0HDxocIv6a7sLoEhcb+rd4NPDkku8Uvu9Uc1jl+ek5j8f3Dw2CQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:19:47.538957Z"},"content_sha256":"769e31cdb513e8f97f79babeb56c8e68261772cc4d8c6e18a3a1c36d48043dc4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:769e31cdb513e8f97f79babeb56c8e68261772cc4d8c6e18a3a1c36d48043dc4"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Calibration procedures for approximate Bayesian credible sets","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"stat.CO","authors_text":"Geoff K. Nicholls, Jeong Eun Lee, Robin J. Ryder","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","abstract_excerpt":"We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible set for an approximate posterior which is not proportional to the product of ideal likelihood and prior. We estimate the realised posterior coverage achieved by the approximate credible set. This is the coverage of the unknown ``true'' parameter if the data are a realisation of the user's ideal observation model conditioned on the parameter, and the parameter "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/1810.06433/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ZcotKd/4vPSSmjCDtWyeHvaoMb00IpfYNsuz/BzMCDexeApS5ceqz31TVQ4i3S3Vy6QWZTPjXIXmNSIsguHvDA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:19:47.539419Z"},"content_sha256":"ff7e1ef5befb916fb29d62a411bfef3b6a03185748879d76bd61d5284abbe0f4","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:ff7e1ef5befb916fb29d62a411bfef3b6a03185748879d76bd61d5284abbe0f4"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-25T13:19:47Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:GQMTMV65VJSI74AY4GQES6YLMG","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"9803357275ca90798ad81b0465ee559ce948006e867925a9f45690f3e44b899d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","title_canon_sha256":"a3459c02d2ab2c6e634f2880c8855e43a3804d2745cb7feaa977b3e15cf831b9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1810.06433","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1810.06433v2","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1810.06433","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"GQMTMV65VJSI","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"GQMTMV65VJSI74AY","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"GQMTMV65","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:ff7e1ef5befb916fb29d62a411bfef3b6a03185748879d76bd61d5284abbe0f4","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/1810.06433/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible set for an approximate posterior which is not proportional to the product of ideal likelihood and prior. We estimate the realised posterior coverage achieved by the approximate credible set. This is the coverage of the unknown ``true'' parameter if the data are a realisation of the user's ideal observation model conditioned on the parameter, and the parameter ","authors_text":"Geoff K. Nicholls, Jeong Eun Lee, Robin J. Ryder","cross_cats":["stat.ME"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","title":"Calibration procedures for approximate Bayesian credible sets"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:769e31cdb513e8f97f79babeb56c8e68261772cc4d8c6e18a3a1c36d48043dc4","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"9803357275ca90798ad81b0465ee559ce948006e867925a9f45690f3e44b899d","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.ME"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.CO","submitted_at":"2018-10-15T14:56:17Z","title_canon_sha256":"a3459c02d2ab2c6e634f2880c8855e43a3804d2745cb7feaa977b3e15cf831b9"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1810.06433","kind":"arxiv","version":2}},"canonical_sha256":"34193657ddaa648ff018e1a0497b0b61b5e0c93f610acec9bbd9ebff409447bc","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"34193657ddaa648ff018e1a0497b0b61b5e0c93f610acec9bbd9ebff409447bc","first_computed_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.791670Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.791670Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"/MNb6bpxhXYimwNof1s5oO0SzhBJOxzmS2UCMjyj6eOh1CBSpzCoawbhl7OkNkvKwwiNh/d9RsBEdj1C2j74Dg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-20T00:04:02.792912Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1810.06433","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":2}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:769e31cdb513e8f97f79babeb56c8e68261772cc4d8c6e18a3a1c36d48043dc4","sha256:ff7e1ef5befb916fb29d62a411bfef3b6a03185748879d76bd61d5284abbe0f4"],"state_sha256":"4885c765693233b02b214bd77e7e7318b63ecce790ef0d5d82b7321e145a6fce"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"LW/gxuakMsv26sUaxbVLRJVFRNYpRuXd81rnUrW8i73HLiO2FwPx5YcrGe67UyxtRjBrKUkqD/hclj1bPeqXBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-25T13:19:47.541962Z","bundle_sha256":"bb95e1b155cbf27a4aea3979b03edca93bc306575c23ff8500cddd844405c3b9"}}