{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2012:IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI","short_pith_number":"pith:IDQ6X2BY","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"title_canon_sha256":"4a6a5951628e72a0153faa6fecfc391bb4e170e6a50de7201289e8c4d4e5d1bf","abstract_canon_sha256":"94a65075bf1c8661aaeb4cfbfe9e42e3d709ecda153b079da7b4eaa3d5ca4803"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"40e1ebe838c9257b146154e0cb2cee0a31a861c14f7eba8f89302f0df928468b","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1205.3845","version":1},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1205.3845","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1205.3845v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1205.3845","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BYZESX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2012:IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"title_canon_sha256":"4a6a5951628e72a0153faa6fecfc391bb4e170e6a50de7201289e8c4d4e5d1bf","abstract_canon_sha256":"94a65075bf1c8661aaeb4cfbfe9e42e3d709ecda153b079da7b4eaa3d5ca4803"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"40e1ebe838c9257b146154e0cb2cee0a31a861c14f7eba8f89302f0df928468b","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.316528Z","signature_b64":"8jOZ0ti5MYUqLZuFI8VdX+nO0VPhKANd5gxjdYkO2V0I40f4VPtw1lw3rK3U7Zm80tNjinob5JWYrwNmmDjLDA==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"40e1ebe838c9257b146154e0cb2cee0a31a861c14f7eba8f89302f0df928468b","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.315975Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.315975Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1205.3845","source_version":1,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"kw+4jscjEfKOsFSHPNKHNoQzqi8eepSGTNgC8/FZkdX92dWSIoJgf3msFIKQpeIgCxp27t3p3n8NrkvRsFlMCA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T17:56:23.095672Z"},"content_sha256":"c2b887d284db8543edbcefbc957909df2a5004851e30d1ce1802f24dbc13af60","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:c2b887d284db8543edbcefbc957909df2a5004851e30d1ce1802f24dbc13af60"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2012:IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Ingo Steinwart, Luke Bornn, Marian Anghel","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","abstract_excerpt":"When faced with the task of forecasting a dynamic system, practitioners often have available historical data, knowledge of the system, or a combination of both. While intuition dictates that perfect knowledge of the system should in theory yield perfect forecasting, often knowledge of the system is only partially known, known up to parameters, or known incorrectly. In contrast, forecasting using previous data without any process knowledge might result in accurate prediction for simple systems, but will fail for highly nonlinear and chaotic systems. In this paper, the authors demonstrate how ev"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"llbFO2v5V8ZFTkbucQ9dAT6Phv6Nv7quIa4akfzviEorcMU2vIPMDkNmolSOqAPRnWeE60BNxUiKJ/OaPl1aBQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T17:56:23.096021Z"},"content_sha256":"b3019dae3729387835f6ed5fc313ee6dd62a949312fe32ade3869276e15c7478","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:b3019dae3729387835f6ed5fc313ee6dd62a949312fe32ade3869276e15c7478"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-27T17:56:23Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2012:IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDBKTQMWLHOBI","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"94a65075bf1c8661aaeb4cfbfe9e42e3d709ecda153b079da7b4eaa3d5ca4803","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","title_canon_sha256":"4a6a5951628e72a0153faa6fecfc391bb4e170e6a50de7201289e8c4d4e5d1bf"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1205.3845","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1205.3845v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1205.3845","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BYZESX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BYZESXWFDB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"IDQ6X2BY","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:27:09Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:b3019dae3729387835f6ed5fc313ee6dd62a949312fe32ade3869276e15c7478","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"When faced with the task of forecasting a dynamic system, practitioners often have available historical data, knowledge of the system, or a combination of both. While intuition dictates that perfect knowledge of the system should in theory yield perfect forecasting, often knowledge of the system is only partially known, known up to parameters, or known incorrectly. In contrast, forecasting using previous data without any process knowledge might result in accurate prediction for simple systems, but will fail for highly nonlinear and chaotic systems. In this paper, the authors demonstrate how ev","authors_text":"Ingo Steinwart, Luke Bornn, Marian Anghel","cross_cats":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","title":"Forecasting with Historical Data or Process Knowledge under Misspecification: A Comparison"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:c2b887d284db8543edbcefbc957909df2a5004851e30d1ce1802f24dbc13af60","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"94a65075bf1c8661aaeb4cfbfe9e42e3d709ecda153b079da7b4eaa3d5ca4803","cross_cats_sorted":["stat.CO","stat.OT"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ME","submitted_at":"2012-05-17T04:06:29Z","title_canon_sha256":"4a6a5951628e72a0153faa6fecfc391bb4e170e6a50de7201289e8c4d4e5d1bf"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1205.3845","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"40e1ebe838c9257b146154e0cb2cee0a31a861c14f7eba8f89302f0df928468b","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"40e1ebe838c9257b146154e0cb2cee0a31a861c14f7eba8f89302f0df928468b","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.315975Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.315975Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"8jOZ0ti5MYUqLZuFI8VdX+nO0VPhKANd5gxjdYkO2V0I40f4VPtw1lw3rK3U7Zm80tNjinob5JWYrwNmmDjLDA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T03:55:24.316528Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1205.3845","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:c2b887d284db8543edbcefbc957909df2a5004851e30d1ce1802f24dbc13af60","sha256:b3019dae3729387835f6ed5fc313ee6dd62a949312fe32ade3869276e15c7478"],"state_sha256":"4db9bb3fa6f94a23521cd67ee215593e631f30a62bdb0fcf46bdd118829b88fd"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"9BVU0TEe4PwMusK/DQ+cE00Vw+5jVnxKveq4ZblA/2k0UTffsv2wNgzR+Z37svxgbRkgJsCZ8xS/0OtJOllMCQ==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-27T17:56:23.098628Z","bundle_sha256":"7529f6737c0e4996ef574f2ff10a05750f2633cefd3ef589cd5cbeeb3b3114d4"}}