{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2014:M4NJUKGID35OSX6VEW7RWHH6CR","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8a84322936dae0cb730cb495cdcd83d5c44e6db035b4387880ad53670ac1870d","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS","physics.med-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T14:15:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"95c82966980cc3cd25bb3bb2946038cdf829e00227848eba8394217b2760d209"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1404.6424","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1404.6424","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1404.6424v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1404.6424","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"M4NJUKGID35O","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"M4NJUKGID35OSX6V","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:38Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"M4NJUKGI","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:28:38Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:4401280c0a079fca9268bd6892b8f47355bf0ed96fc5f2a3f166b748c01e5412","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but also is very important for the safety of public health. Here we show that SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) model accurately enough reproduces real curves of flu activity. It contains variable reaction rate, which is a function of mean daily temperature. The proposed alternation of variables represents SIRS equations as the second-order ODE ","authors_text":"Dmitry V. Tatarenkov, Eugene B. Postnikov","cross_cats":["math.DS","physics.med-ph"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T14:15:59Z","title":"Prediction of flu epidemic activity with dynamical model based on weather forecast"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1404.6424","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:7995310ecbc4015481516bf9a70c2bd54b79c1e6dd76c75bf47d063b8cb885da","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"8a84322936dae0cb730cb495cdcd83d5c44e6db035b4387880ad53670ac1870d","cross_cats_sorted":["math.DS","physics.med-ph"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"q-bio.PE","submitted_at":"2014-04-25T14:15:59Z","title_canon_sha256":"95c82966980cc3cd25bb3bb2946038cdf829e00227848eba8394217b2760d209"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1404.6424","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"671a9a28c81efae95fd525bf1b1cfe145e51a8e5fee354d56b5a7964d508fae6","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"671a9a28c81efae95fd525bf1b1cfe145e51a8e5fee354d56b5a7964d508fae6","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16.508523Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16.508523Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"bbx1mxRM90XxhYALQjyHW2S6zpRFQO9DGhqIU8KXyLF4FXcGby+cSw8l5k2ZDDEnuWCsrlnlfj80CDwBEvyDCA==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-18T02:53:16.509033Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1404.6424","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:7995310ecbc4015481516bf9a70c2bd54b79c1e6dd76c75bf47d063b8cb885da","sha256:4401280c0a079fca9268bd6892b8f47355bf0ed96fc5f2a3f166b748c01e5412"],"state_sha256":"7a867d9a93e004899b763dcf65ce2cf0a0a9949106ee848ab9913d33142c9ecc"}