{"record_type":"pith_number_record","schema_url":"https://pith.science/schemas/pith-number/v1.json","pith_number":"pith:2015:TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO","short_pith_number":"pith:TVRWOKQQ","schema_version":"1.0","canonical_sha256":"9d63672a108117360021e3f8198987839dbe0e4ccd673721f40fa8c1d5146300","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1503.09156","version":1},"attestation_state":"computed","paper":{"title":"Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.DL","authors_text":"Clara Stegehuis, Ludo Waltman, Nelly Litvak","submitted_at":"2015-03-31T18:36:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a publication has appeared and the number of citations a publication has received one year after its appearance. The proposed model is based on quantile regression. We employ the model to predict the future number of citations of a large set of publications in the field of physics. Our analysis shows tha"},"verification_status":{"content_addressed":true,"pith_receipt":true,"author_attested":false,"weak_author_claims":0,"strong_author_claims":0,"externally_anchored":false,"storage_verified":false,"citation_signatures":0,"replication_records":0,"graph_snapshot":true,"references_resolved":false,"formal_links_present":false},"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1503.09156","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"cs.DL","submitted_at":"2015-03-31T18:36:42Z","cross_cats_sorted":[],"title_canon_sha256":"27c2f2382a136097d2ca24720cbfc3a54f83350a5f649ee9f2a3b2e66bfae689","abstract_canon_sha256":"f813680dbc942896673c4be358f38d4493804139ee32519063570bc822b2df43"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.999159Z","signature_b64":"3Nba6kU8C2PpO/Fd7Nw3n9HuufA5/4v4a6LDUNDNGQf3qHPY4yABLU7fYzEeGuu1qJixqvNYv1sRpsXiE1QnAw==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"9d63672a108117360021e3f8198987839dbe0e4ccd673721f40fa8c1d5146300","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998453Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998453Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.DL","authors_text":"Clara Stegehuis, Ludo Waltman, Nelly Litvak","submitted_at":"2015-03-31T18:36:42Z","abstract_excerpt":"A fundamental problem in citation analysis is the prediction of the long-term citation impact of recent publications. We propose a model to predict a probability distribution for the future number of citations of a publication. Two predictors are used: The impact factor of the journal in which a publication has appeared and the number of citations a publication has received one year after its appearance. The proposed model is based on quantile regression. We employ the model to predict the future number of citations of a large set of publications in the field of physics. Our analysis shows tha"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1503.09156","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1503.09156","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998565+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1503.09156v1","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998565+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1503.09156","created_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998565+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"TVRWOKQQQELT","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"TVRWOKQQQELTMABB","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"TVRWOKQQ","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:29:42.218222+00:00"}],"events":[],"event_summary":{},"paper_claims":[],"inbound_citations":{"count":0,"internal_anchor_count":0,"sample":[]},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"sample":[],"anchors":[]},"links":{"html":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO","json":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO.json","graph_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/graph.json","events_json":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/events.json","paper":"https://pith.science/paper/TVRWOKQQ"},"agent_actions":{"view_html":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO","download_json":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO.json","view_paper":"https://pith.science/paper/TVRWOKQQ","resolve_alias":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/resolve?arxiv=1503.09156&json=true","fetch_graph":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/graph.json","fetch_events":"https://pith.science/api/pith-number/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/events.json","actions":{"anchor_timestamp":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/action/timestamp_anchor","attest_storage":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/action/storage_attestation","attest_author":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/action/author_attestation","sign_citation":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/action/citation_signature","submit_replication":"https://pith.science/pith/TVRWOKQQQELTMABB4P4BTCMHQO/action/replication_record"}},"created_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998565+00:00","updated_at":"2026-05-18T01:33:34.998565+00:00"}