{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2025:WWOMLZFGF2NCKW6DDCIRDVNCSK","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3727039ccbf73200cc5ba424a75a9356bd54a885410d995725412e3d754a72b7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-05-21T12:18:15Z","title_canon_sha256":"f975e44d5b2a2c70d3f936ea748dac0e4259ce497bc3e9b340327a2044d7f88d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2505.15437","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2505.15437","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2505.15437v3","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2505.15437","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"WWOMLZFGF2NC","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"WWOMLZFGF2NCKW6D","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"WWOMLZFG","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:04ad5d3fad2395361ef3bedcb26c11d801c7bdc767a1804cf59f8156a5c294ee","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2505.15437/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications. In practice, however, predicted probabilities are often miscalibrated, and many existing post-hoc calibration methods typically lack guarantees that a specific notion of calibration is achieved after the correction procedure is applied. We introduce a set-based perspective on calibration through the notion of cumulative mass calibration and the corresponding error measures. We propose a new calibration procedure based on conformal prediction that forms cumulative probabilities with guaranteed marginal covera","authors_text":"Daniil Kazantsev, Eric Moulines, Maxim Panov, Mohsen Guizani, Nikita Kotelevskii","cross_cats":["cs.LG"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-05-21T12:18:15Z","title":"Adaptive Cumulative Mass Calibration with Conformal Prediction"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2505.15437","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:e88228e59fa28739b9fceb1675d2a26a0054660164fa8a46db95144a4bd12bbf","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"3727039ccbf73200cc5ba424a75a9356bd54a885410d995725412e3d754a72b7","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.LG"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.ML","submitted_at":"2025-05-21T12:18:15Z","title_canon_sha256":"f975e44d5b2a2c70d3f936ea748dac0e4259ce497bc3e9b340327a2044d7f88d"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2505.15437","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"b59cc5e4a62e9a255bc3189111d5a29297f5b8340e32771deb357eb4cc827e5a","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"b59cc5e4a62e9a255bc3189111d5a29297f5b8340e32771deb357eb4cc827e5a","first_computed_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34.892872Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34.892872Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"DMsIbwEFD5FO/GBBKQUeHu6TUwJuHKqH6mTXrupP6fgCjW8RJeCbJOos/hN4seFxHPbgq8F+Hk22SDgwNddMDw==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-25T01:18:34.893378Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2505.15437","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:e88228e59fa28739b9fceb1675d2a26a0054660164fa8a46db95144a4bd12bbf","sha256:04ad5d3fad2395361ef3bedcb26c11d801c7bdc767a1804cf59f8156a5c294ee"],"state_sha256":"f4865a1038edf35b9a6219fd3660e8bc313001562ff7c4abdcfddfb6fa749ead"}