Pith. sign in

REVIEW

Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

This paper has not been read by Pith yet. Machine review is queued; the pith claim, tier, and objections will appear here once it completes.

SPECIMEN: schema-true, not a live event

T0 review · schema-true

One-sentence machine reading of the paper's core claim.

pith:XXXXXXXX · record.json · timestamp

arxiv 2103.10605 v1 pith:OPDTYTT5 submitted 2021-03-19 stat.AP econ.EM

On Spurious Causality, CO2, and Global Temperature

classification stat.AP econ.EM
keywords causalityflowsglobalinformationliangseriesstipstemperature
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
0 comments
read the original abstract

Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on a simplifying assumption that is nearly always rejected by the data. We propose an adequate measure of information flow based on Vector Autoregressions, and find that most results in Stips et al. (2016) cannot be corroborated. Then, it is discussed which modeling choices (e.g., the choice of CO2 series and assumptions about simultaneous relationships) may help in extracting credible estimates of causal flows and the transient climate response simply by looking at the joint dynamics of two climatic time series.

discussion (0)

Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.