Frontier AI benchmarks depreciate as models saturate easy items, concentrating valid signal in scarce elite-authored hard-tail items that private markets underprovide.
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The Benchmark Ceiling: Human Judgment, Evaluation Scarcity, and the Political Economy of AI Capability Measurement
Frontier AI benchmarks depreciate as models saturate easy items, concentrating valid signal in scarce elite-authored hard-tail items that private markets underprovide.