Behavioral profiles from prediction-market traders are partially stable and identifiable but cannot be transmitted via prompts to reduce LLM forecast correlations or improve Brier scores.
Park, Rafael Valdece Sousa Bastos, and Philip E
3 Pith papers cite this work, alongside 34 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.
3
Pith papers citing it
34
external citations · OpenAlex
representative citing papers
Linear probes on intermediate LLM activations produce better-calibrated confidence than verbalized probabilities, detect hidden evidence influence, and reveal that forecasts are largely pre-committed before reasoning begins.
LLMs compress U.S. climate opinion diversity and apply uniform gender assumptions that match reality for White and Hispanic Americans but misrepresent Black Americans.
citing papers explorer
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Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior
Behavioral profiles from prediction-market traders are partially stable and identifiable but cannot be transmitted via prompts to reduce LLM forecast correlations or improve Brier scores.
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What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness
Linear probes on intermediate LLM activations produce better-calibrated confidence than verbalized probabilities, detect hidden evidence influence, and reveal that forecasts are largely pre-committed before reasoning begins.
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How Large Language Models Systematically Misrepresent American Climate Opinions
LLMs compress U.S. climate opinion diversity and apply uniform gender assumptions that match reality for White and Hispanic Americans but misrepresent Black Americans.