Reinterpreting the results of the LHC with MadAnalysis 5: uncertainties and higher-luminosity estimates

The MadAnalysis 5 framework can be used to assess the potential of various LHC analyses for unravelling any specific new physics signal. We present an extension of the LHC reinterpretation capabilities of the programme allowing for the inclusion of theoretical and systematical uncertainties on the signal in the reinterpretation procedure. We have implemented extra methods dedicated to the extrapolation of the impact of a given analysis to higher luminosities, including various options for the treatment of the errors. As an application, we study three classes of new physics models. We first focus on a simplified model in which the Standard Model is supplemented by a gluino and a neutralino. We show that uncertainties could in particular degrade the bounds by several hundreds of GeV when considering 3000 fb$^{-1}$ of future LHC data. We next investigate another supersymmetry-inspired simplified model, in which the Standard Model is extended by a first generation squark species and a neutralino. We reach similar conclusions. Finally, we study a class of s-channel dark matter setups and compare the expectation for two types of scenarios differing in the details of the implementation of the mediation between the dark and Standard Model sectors.