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Simulation-efficient marginal posterior estimation with swyft: stop wasting your precious time

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arxiv 2011.13951 v1 pith:TOXXR3DB submitted 2020-11-27 astro-ph.IM astro-ph.COcs.LGhep-ph

classification astro-ph.IMastro-ph.COcs.LGhep-ph
keywords algorithmsestimationsimulatorapplicablemarginalofferswyftanalysis
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We present algorithms (a) for nested neural likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation, and (b) for simulation reuse via an inhomogeneous Poisson point process cache of parameters and corresponding simulations. Together, these algorithms enable automatic and extremely simulator efficient estimation of marginal and joint posteriors. The algorithms are applicable to a wide range of physics and astronomy problems and typically offer an order of magnitude better simulator efficiency than traditional likelihood-based sampling methods. Our approach is an example of likelihood-free inference, thus it is also applicable to simulators which do not offer a tractable likelihood function. Simulator runs are never rejected and can be automatically reused in future analysis. As functional prototype implementation we provide the open-source software package swyft.

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  1. Simulation-based inference on warm dark matter from HERA forecasts

    astro-ph.CO 2024-12 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Using neural ratio estimation on mock HERA power spectra, the authors forecast 95% lower bounds on the thermal WDM mass that exceed the 5.3 keV Lyman-alpha limit when the galaxy threshold mass Mturn is below 1e8 M_sun.

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