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Neural Posterior Estimation with guaranteed exact coverage: the ringdown of GW150914

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arxiv 2305.18528 v2 pith:OUVMWS27 submitted 2023-05-29 gr-qc

classification gr-qc
keywords ringdowngw150914posterioramplitudecoverageexactfirstguaranteed
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We analyze the ringdown phase of the first detected black-hole merger, GW150914, using a simulation-based inference pipeline based on masked autoregressive flows. We obtain approximate marginal posterior distributions for the ringdown parameters, namely the mass, spin, and the amplitude and phases of the dominant mode and its first overtone. Thanks to the locally amortized nature of our method, we are able to calibrate our posteriors with injected simulations, producing posterior regions with guaranteed (i.e. exact) frequentist coverage of the true values. For GW150914, our calibrated posteriors provide only mild evidence (~ 2 sigma) for the presence of an overtone, even if the ringdown is assumed to start at the peak of the amplitude.

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Forward citations

Cited by 4 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Don't Cut Corners: How Training Outside the Prior Makes Simulation-Based Inference More Robust

    astro-ph.IM 2026-08 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Tailed-Uniform proposal distributions, which pad the uniform training box with decaying tails, improve neural posterior estimates near and beyond the prior boundaries in simulation-based inference.

  2. Combining simulation-based inference and universal relations for precise and accurate neutron star science

    gr-qc 2026-01 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A machine-learning simulator trained on 1,491 simulated equations of state discovers a neutron-star radius relation R(M,f,p1), predicting radii to tens of meters with calibrated error bars.

  3. Sequential simulation-based inference for extreme mass ratio inspirals

    gr-qc 2025-05 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Sequential simulation-based inference with truncated marginal neural ratio estimation shrinks the 11-parameter search volume for simulated non-spinning extreme-mass-ratio inspirals by factors of 1e6 to 1e7 and recover...

  4. Reanalyzing the ringdown signal of GW150914 using the F-statistic method

    gr-qc 2024-11 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Applying the F-statistic method to GW150914's ringdown yields FIC = -0.3 for adding the first overtone, consistent with no overtone, while an injection with an overtone yields FIC = 0.3.

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