Determining the Baryon Impact on the Matter Power Spectrum with Galaxy Clusters

The redistribution of baryonic matter in massive halos through processes like active galactic nuclei feedback and star formation leads to a suppression of the matter power spectrum on small scales. This redistribution can be measured empirically via the gas and stellar mass fractions in galaxy clusters, and leaves imprints on their electron density profiles. We constrain two semi-analytical baryon correction models with a compilation of recent Bayesian population studies of galaxy groups and clusters sampling a mass range above $\sim 3 \times 10^{13}$ $M_\odot$, and with cluster gas density profiles derived from deep, high-resolution X-ray observations. We are able to fit all the considered observational data, but highlight some anomalies in the observations. The constraints allow us to place precise, physically informed priors on the matter power spectrum suppression. At a scale of $k=1 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ we find a suppression of $0.042^{+0.012}_{-0.014}$ ($0.049^{+0.016}_{-0.012}$), while at $k=3h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ we find $0.184^{+0.026}_{-0.031}$ ($0.179^{+0.018}_{-0.020}$), depending on the model used. In our fiducial setting, we also predict at 97.5 percent credibility, that at scales $k<0.37h$ Mpc$^{-1}$ baryon feedback impacts the matter power less than $1\%$. This puts into question if baryon feedback is the driving factor for the discrepancy between cosmic shear and primary CMB results. We independently confirm results on this suppression from small-scale cosmic shear studies, while we exclude some hydro-dynamical simulations with too strong and too weak baryonic feedback. Our empirical prediction of the power spectrum suppression shows that studies of galaxy groups and clusters will be instrumental in unlocking the cosmological constraining power of future cosmic shear experiments like \textit{Euclid} and Rubin-LSST, and invites further investigation of the baryon correction models.