Pith. sign in

REVIEW 3 major objections 4 minor 1 cited by

Near-circular orbits for planets around M/K-type stars with Earth-like sizes and instellations

T0 review · 3 major / 4 minor · reviewed 2026-08-10 · deepseek-v4-flash

Challenge this review Re-run · record.json Download PDF Read on arXiv ↗ Review JSON

Pith's one-line read Earth-size planets around small stars orbit nearly in circles

desk verdict First eccentricity-distribution measurement for a carefully chosen Earth-proxy sample around M/K dwarfs; the near-circular result is probably right, but the grazing-transit cut could bias it and needs an explicit injection test. read the letter →

arxiv 2501.10571 v1 pith:HQWDLYLF submitted 2025-01-17 astro-ph.EP

David Kipping , Diana Solano-Oropeza , Daniel A. Yahalomi , Madison Li , Avishi Poddar , Xunhe Zhang This is my paper · ORCID
classification astro-ph.EP
keywords exoplanetseccentricityphotoeccentriceffectMdwarfsKtransitlightcurveshierarchicalBayesianmodelEarth-likeplanets
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper measures the orbital eccentricities of 17 transiting planets with Earth-like sizes and instellations around M/K-type stars, using the photoeccentric effect, which infers orbital shape from transit durations. The central claim is that this population is dynamically cool: after excluding one outlier, the favored exponential model yields a mean eccentricity of 0.060 (+0.040/-0.028), and injection-recovery tests show the data are indistinguishable from a purely circular population. The one exception, Kepler-440 b, has eccentricity about 0.40 and may belong to a separate, rarer dynamically warm population. A sympathetic reader should care because these planets resemble Earth in radius and starlight received, and their near-circular orbits mean most experience little eccentricity-driven seasonal climate variation, with consequences for habitability studies and formation theories.

What carries the argument

The photoeccentric effect, a form of asterodensity profiling: comparing the stellar density implied by a transit light curve under the assumption of a circular orbit to an independently measured stellar density. The ratio γ of these densities is sensitive to the orbital eccentricity e and argument of periastron ω, and the paper uses marginal posteriors of log γ as data for a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM). The HBM fits candidate population distributions for eccentricity (Rayleigh, Tremaine, exponential, Beta) with a geometric transit bias correction, selecting models via AIC and using injection-recovery of fake circular and eccentric populations to calibrate the inference. The stellar densities are derived from the Mann empirical mass-luminosity relation plus a new probabilistic mass-radius relation trained on 171 stars, which is the central external input that anchors the circular-orbit baseline.

What would settle it

A direct, model-independent measurement of the eccentricity of several of the 17 planets via radial velocities, transit timing variations, or high-precision eclipse timing would falsify the claim: if three or more of the nominally circular sample showed eccentricities above about 0.15, the conclusion of a dynamically cool population would fail. Conversely, detecting a second high-eccentricity Earth proxy among a larger sample would confirm the hypothesized dynamically warm subpopulation, whereas finding none in a sample of tens would strengthen the outlier interpretation.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper establishes that Earth proxies around late-type stars, the closest observationally accessible analog population to true Earth analogs, have a near-circular eccentricity distribution. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the photoeccentric effect on 17 carefully vetted transiting planets, the authors find that the population, excluding the confirmed planet KOI-4087.01 (Kepler-440 b), is best described by an exponential eccentricity distribution with mean eccentricity 1/λ = 0.060 (+0.040/-0.028), consistent with a purely circular population in injection-recovery tests. Kepler-440 b is a distinct outlier with e = 0.40 (+0.20/-0.12), inferred under a uniform prior, and is argued to be genuinely eccentric rather than a blend or TTV artifact. The paper thus claims that Earth-like planets around the most common star types typically have low eccentricities, supporting formation through smooth disk migration and disfavoring violent planet-planet scattering as the dominant dynamical origin.

Load-bearing premise

The independent stellar densities used as the circular-orbit baseline are unbiased, particularly the new mass-radius relation trained on 171 stars; a systematic offset in these densities would shift the γ ratios and hence the inferred eccentricities directly.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • The outer edge of the habitable zone for these planets shifts outward by at most about 2% at 2-σ confidence, because low eccentricity keeps the orbit-averaged flux close to the circular value.
  • Target selection for atmospheric characterization with JWST is simplified: Earth-like planets around M/K dwarfs mostly avoid eccentricity-induced climate variability and can be treated as near-circular for scheduling and interpretation.
  • Planet-planet scattering producing the maximal eccentricity of about 0.30 is strongly excluded for the bulk population, favoring formation via disk migration in compact resonance-chain systems or as currently single planets.
  • The existence of a rare dynamically warm subpopulation, represented by Kepler-440 b, is estimated to comprise less than 21.3% of the ensemble at 2-σ confidence, with a prediction that 34 total Earth proxies would be needed for a 50% chance of finding another member.
  • If true Earth analogs are a subset of Earth proxies, then Earth-like planets around late-type stars, which dominate the cosmos, most often have near-circular orbits similar to the Earth's own eccentricity of 0.0167.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The inference that the population is indistinguishable from circular rests on an assumed parametric family (exponential); a broader nonparametric approach might reveal structure that these one- and two-parameter models cannot capture, such as a bimodality that the single outlier only hints at.
  • The new probabilistic mass-radius relation, if applied to a larger sample of transiting planets around late-type stars, could be used to test whether the photoeccentric effect itself is systematically biased by small stellar-density errors, for example by comparing independent asteroseismic or eclipse-based densities on a per-star basis.
  • One could extend the analysis to TESS-discovered Earth proxies with longer baselines as they accumulate more transits, to push the circular-population test below the current saturation floor of about 0.09-0.15 in mean eccentricity.
  • The finding implies that dynamically warm Earth proxies, if they exist as a distinct class, may be preferentially found in systems with outer giant planets capable of secular excitation, making them valuable targets for radial-velocity searches for long-period companions.
Share X Bluesky LinkedIn Reddit HN

Signed reviews

No signed human review yet.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 4 minor

Summary. The paper assembles a sample of 17 transiting 'Earth proxy' planets (radius within a factor of two of Earth, instellation within a factor of four) around late-type stars and uses asterodensity profiling / the photoeccentric effect together with hierarchical Bayesian modeling to infer the ensemble eccentricity distribution. The authors report that, after excluding the outlier KOI-4087.01 (Kepler-440 b), the favored exponential model gives a mean eccentricity of 0.060 (+0.040/-0.028), and that an injection-recovery experiment with forced-circular planets produces the same inferred mean (0.061), leading them to conclude that the bulk population is dynamically cool, with KOI-4087.01 as a possible member of a rare, dynamically warmer subpopulation.

Significance. If the central claim holds, this is the first eccentricity distribution measurement for Earth-sized, Earth-insolated planets around M/K dwarfs, and it has direct implications for climate stability, habitability, and formation pathways. The paper has notable strengths: the posteriors and code are made available, the outlier handling is transparent, multiple eccentricity distribution families are compared, and the circular-injection experiment is a useful placebo test. The main risks are selection effects in the grazing-transit cut, the post-hoc exclusion of the single outlier, and the limited external validation of the new empirical mass-radius relation that sets the circular-orbit baseline. These concern the core conclusion rather than presentation, so the manuscript needs revision before the dynamical-coolness claim is fully supported.

major comments (3)
  1. [Methods, 'Light curve fits'; 'Generating fake circular planets'] The grazing-transit cut removes any candidate with more than 50% posterior weight at b > 1 - R_p/R_*, and this cut can preferentially remove eccentric planets. In an eccentric orbit, a circular-orbit fit absorbs the transit-duration change produced by e and omega into a larger impact parameter, so planets transiting near periastron (gamma > 1) are especially likely to be classified as grazing and removed. The precautionary KS test on orbital periods (p = 0.96) does not test the eccentricity dimension, and the injection-recovery experiment injects into the already-selected 17 targets, so it bypasses the selection pipeline entirely. Because 21 of 74 candidates were removed by this cut, the reported mean eccentricity of 0.060 may be an artifact of selection rather than a property of the underlying population. I request a forward-modeling test that injects eccentric populations before the light-curve fits and applies the full selection, or an analytic selection correction; without this, the central 'dynamically cool' claim is not yet established.
  2. [Table 2 and 'Results: Hierarchical Bayesian modelling'] The exclusion of KOI-4087.01 is post-hoc and changes the conclusion: with all 17 planets the exponential model gives mean eccentricity 0.100 (+0.040/-0.031) and the Beta model is favored by AIC, whereas after excluding that planet the exponential model gives 0.060 and is strongly favored. The authors are transparent about reporting both fits, but the abstract and discussion foreground only the 16-planet value. Because the same data are used both to identify the outlier and to define the bulk population, a formal robustness check is needed: for example, a leave-one-out analysis, an outlier p-value under the fitted population model, or a mixture model with a prior on the warm fraction. The headline population mean should either include such a robustness treatment or be explicitly framed as the value conditional on the post-hoc exclusion.
  3. [Methods, 'Stellar inference' and 'Stellar properties'; Supplementary Figure 2] The circular-orbit baseline stellar density is derived from the Mann mass-luminosity relation together with a new probabilistic mass-radius relation trained on 171 stars from Mann et al. (2015). A systematic offset in this M-R relation would propagate directly into the gamma posteriors and hence into the inferred eccentricities. The external validation against Gaidos et al. (2016) covers 13 Kepler candidates, but only three of the 11 Kepler planets in the final sample (the two KOI-1422 planets and KOI-3284.01) have direct counterparts, and none of the six TESS targets is independently validated. I ask for independent density or radius checks for the final 17 targets where available, or a sensitivity analysis quantifying how large an M-R offset would be needed to move the inferred mean eccentricity by a significant amount.
minor comments (4)
  1. [Figure 2 and Table 1] The Figure 2 caption and contour labels include KOI-7706.01, but Table 1 and the text list only 17 Earth proxies and do not include this object; the label count appears to be 18. This inconsistency must be corrected.
  2. [Methods, 'Planet-planet scattering' and 'Light curve fits'] There are unresolved placeholders in the text: 'Zhu & Dong’s recent review?' and 'RoboAO?' should be replaced with proper citations, and the Data Availability section uses 'this URL' placeholders that must be filled in.
  3. [Throughout] Several typographical errors should be cleaned up, including 'bear little resemble to Earth', 'Space Space Telescopes', 'we do no calculate TTVs', and the grammatically incomplete sentence beginning 'rather than attempt a colour conversion...'.
  4. [References] Reference 90 duplicates reference 89 (both Goldreich & Soter 1966), and the equation in the tidal circularisation paragraph is attributed to 'ref. 90' while the nearby citation list suggests ref. 89; please clarify which source is intended.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the eccentricity inference is calibrated against independently derived empirical stellar densities and tested with injection-recovery.

full rationale

The paper's derivation chain is self-contained with respect to the quantities it claims to measure. The eccentricity signal is obtained from the ratio gamma = rho_star,circ / rho_star,true, where rho_star,circ is the transit-derived stellar density under a circular-orbit assumption and rho_star,true is an independent empirical density from the Mann mass-luminosity relation plus a newly trained probabilistic mass-radius relation based on the Mann et al. (2015) calibration sample. Neither input is defined in terms of eccentricity; eccentricity is inferred from the deviation of gamma from unity via the photoeccentric effect. The population-level mean eccentricity is a fitted hierarchical-Bayes parameter, not a prediction derived from the same fitted quantity, and the paper explicitly tests the inference by injecting forced-circular light curves and recovering them through the full pipeline. Self-citations to asterodensity profiling and to the eccentricity prior of Kipping (2014) are to established, independently used methods, and no uniqueness claim is imported from the authors' prior work. The grazing-transit cut and the simplified eccentric injection (which shifts log-gamma posteriors rather than re-running the selection pipeline) are potential selection and validation limitations, but they do not make the conclusion equivalent to the paper's inputs by construction. Therefore no circular step meeting the quoted-evidence standard is present.

Assumptions & free parameters 5 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No new physical entities are introduced. The 'Earth proxy' definition and the probabilistic M-R relation are new analytical constructs, not entities. The free parameters listed are the ones that materially affect the headline eccentricity measurement, chiefly the population mean and the parameters of the new M-R relation.

free parameters (5)
  • Mean eccentricity (1/lambda) of the exponential population model = 0.060 (+0.040/-0.028)
    The central result; inferred from the HBM fit to the 16 non-outlier planets and used as the headline mean eccentricity.
  • M-R relation gradient (m) = not stated in text
    Fitted to the 171-star Mann et al. (2015) calibration sample; used to convert Mann masses to radii and hence independent stellar densities.
  • M-R relation offset (b_perp) = not stated in text
    Intercept of the new probabilistic mass-radius relation, fitted jointly with the gradient and intrinsic scatter.
  • M-R relation intrinsic radius variance (V) = not stated in text
    Intrinsic scatter in the probabilistic M-R relation; allowed via a log-uniform prior and affects the radius uncertainties.
  • Outlier eccentricity and argument of periastron for KOI-4087.01 = e = 0.40 (+0.20/-0.12), omega = 271 deg (+38/-38)
    Fitted separately with a uniform eccentricity prior to characterize the claimed outlier population.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption The Mann empirical mass-luminosity relation (Mann et al. 2019) provides unbiased stellar masses for late-type dwarfs from parallax and Ks magnitude.
    Used in the Stellar inference section to derive homogeneous stellar masses; relies on the external relation's validity for the target stars and on Gaia DR3 parallaxes and 2MASS photometry.
  • domain assumption The new probabilistic mass-radius relation trained on Mann et al. (2015) applies to the target stars.
    The relation is trained on a different sample; its applicability to the 17 targets is validated only against 13 cross-matched stars (Supplementary Figure 2), not for all targets.
  • domain assumption The argument of periastron omega is uniformly distributed for the population.
    Adopted in the HBM to break the e-omega degeneracy of the photoeccentric effect; if omega is not uniform, the inferred eccentricity distribution could be biased.
  • domain assumption The eccentricity distribution is one of four parametric forms (Rayleigh, Tremaine, Exponential, Beta).
    HBM requires a hardcoded parametric form; the paper tests four forms and selects exponential after outlier removal, but the true distribution could have a different shape.
  • ad hoc to paper KOI-4087.01 belongs to a separate population and is not a statistical fluctuation of the main distribution.
    Motivates excluding it from the headline mean; the paper provides supporting checks (TTV and blend analysis) but the decision is data-driven.

how reviews work

0 comments
Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Near-circular orbits for planets around M/K-type stars with Earth-like sizes and instellations." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/HQWDLYLF

@misc{pith2026250110571,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Near-circular orbits for planets around M/K-type stars with Earth-like sizes and instellations},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/HQWDLYLF}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2501.10571}
}
abstract

Recent advances have enabled the discovery of a population of potentially Earth-like planets, yet their orbital eccentricity, which governs their climate and provides clues about their origin and dynamical history, is still largely unconstrained. We identify a sample of 17 transiting exoplanets around late-type stars with similar radii and irradiation to that of Earth and use the "photoeccentric effect" - which exploits transit durations - to infer their eccentricity distribution via hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Our analysis establishes that these worlds further resemble Earth in that their eccentricities are nearly circular (mean eccentricity $=0.060_{-0.028}^{+0.040}$ and $\leq0.15$), with the exception of one outlier of moderate eccentricity. The results hint at a subset population of dynamically warmer Earths, but this requires a larger sample to statistically confirm. The planets in our sample are thus largely subject to minimal eccentricity-induced seasonal variability and are consistent with emerging via smooth disk migration rather than violent planet-planet scattering.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2501.10571 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. The dashed one corresponds to KOI-4087.01, treated as an independent object [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p026_1.png] view at source ↗

Discussion (0). Continue with ORCID to comment.

Forward citations

Cited by 1 Pith paper

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Selected Results on Variable Stars Observed by TESS

    astro-ph.SR 2025-09 unverdicted

    A curated review of TESS-era results across the major classes of variable stars, with illustrative light curves, but with no new observational or theoretical result.

Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

61 extracted references · 60 canonical work pages · cited by 1 Pith paper

  1. [41]

    & Rivera-Valent´ın, E

    Mend ´ez, A. & Rivera-Valent´ın, E. G. The Equilibrium Temperature of Planets in Elliptical Orbits. Astrophys. J. 837, L1–L6 (2017)

    work page 2017

  2. [42]

    D., Spiegel, D

    Dressing, C. D., Spiegel, D. S., Scharf, C. A., Menou, K. & Raymond, S. N. Habitable Climates: The Influence of Eccentricity. Astrophys. J. 721, 1295–1307 (2010)

    work page 2010

  3. [43]

    Habitability of planets on eccentric orbits: Limits of the mean flux approximation

    Bolmont, E., Libert, A.-S., Leconte, J., & Selsis, F. Habitability of planets on eccentric orbits: Limits of the mean flux approximation. Astron. Astrophys. 591, 106–123 (2014)

    work page 2014

  4. [44]

    Inner Habitable Zone Boundary for Eccentric Exoplanets

    Ji, X., Bailey, N., Fabrycky, D., Kite, E. S., Jiang, J. H. & Abbot, D. S. Inner Habitable Zone Boundary for Eccentric Exoplanets. Preprint at https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.07883 (2022)

    work page Pith review arXiv 2022

  5. [45]

    Kopparapu, R. et al. The Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone for Synchronously Rotating Planets around Low-mass Stars Using General Circulation Models. Astrophys. J. 819, 84–97 (2016). 19

    work page 2016

  6. [46]

    Z., Shields, A.-L

    Palubski, I. Z., Shields, A.-L. & Deitrick, R. Habitability and Water Loss Limits on Eccentric Planets Orbiting Main-sequence Stars. Astrophys. J. 890, 30–43 (2020)

    work page 2020

  7. [47]

    & Abbot, D

    Yang, J., Bou ´e, G., Fabrycky, D. & Abbot, D. S. Strong Dependence of the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone on Planetary Rotation Rate. Astrophys. J. 787, L2–L8 (2014)

    work page 2014

  8. [48]

    Kopparapu, R. et al. The Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone for Synchronously Rotating Planets around Low-mass Stars Using General Circulation Models. Astrophys. J. 819, 84–97 (2016)

    work page 2016

Show all 61 references
  1. [49]

    W., Liu, B

    Ormel, C. W., Liu, B. & Schoonenberg, D., Formation of TRAPPIST-1 and other compact systems. Astron. Astrophys. 604, 1–8 (2017)

    2017

  2. [50]

    T., Desch, S

    Unterborn, C. T., Desch, S. J., Hinkel, N. R. & Lorenzo, A., Inward migration of the TRAPPIST-1 planets as inferred from their water-rich compositions. Nature Astronomy 2, 297–302 (2018)

    2018

  3. [51]

    & Suzuki, T

    Ogihara, M., Kokubo, E., Nakano, R. & Suzuki, T. K., Rapid-then-slow migration reproduces mass distribution of TRAPPIST-1 system. Astron. Astrophys. 658, 184–190 (2022)

    2022

  4. [52]

    FALSE POSITIVE

    Tamayo, D., Rein, H., Petrovich, C. & Murray, N., Convergent Migration Renders TRAPPIST- 1 Long-lived. Astrophys. J. 840, L19–L24 (2017). 20 Author Correspondence All correspondence regarding this work should be directed to D. Kipping. Acknowledgements D.K. thanks donors Dougl...

    2017

  5. [53]

    A., Howard, A.-W

    Petigura, E. A., Howard, A.-W. & Marcy, G. W. Prevalence of Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sc. 110, 19273–19278 (2013)

    2013

  6. [54]

    Mathur, S. et al. Revised Stellar Properties of Kepler Targets for the Q1-17 (DR25) Transit Detection Run. Astrophys. J. Supp. 229, 30–47 (2017)

    2017

  7. [55]

    Mann, A. W. et al. How to Constrain Your M Dwarf: Measuring Effective Temperature, Bolometric Luminosity, Mass, and Radius. Astrophys. J. 804, 64–99 (2015). 57

    2015

  8. [56]

    W., Bovy, J

    Hogg, D. W., Bovy, J. & Lang, D. Data analysis recipes: Fitting a model to data. Preprint at https://arxiv.org/abs/1008.4686 (2010)

    2010 arXiv

  9. [57]

    & Kipping, D

    Chen, J. & Kipping, D. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds. Astrophys. J. 834, 17–29 (2017)

    2017

  10. [58]

    Chaplin, W. J. et al. Asteroseismic Fundamental Properties of Solar-type Stars Observed by the NASA Kepler Mission. Astrophys. J. Supp. 210, 1–22 (2014)

    2014

  11. [59]

    W., Kraus, A

    Gaidos, E., Mann, A. W., Kraus, A. L. & Ireland, M. They are small worlds after all: revised properties of Kepler M dwarf stars and their planets.Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 457, 2877–2899 (2016)

    2016

  12. [60]

    Vanderburg, A. et al. A Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet Rescued from False Positive Status. Astrophys. J. 893, L27–L34 (2020)

    2020

  13. [61]

    Angelo, I. et al. Kepler-1649b: An Exo-Venus in the Solar Neighborhood. Astrophys. J. 153, 162–169 (2017)

    2017

  14. [62]

    Barclay, T. et al. The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: A Statistical and Analytical Analysis. Astrophys. J. 809, 7–16 (2015)

    2015

  15. [63]

    Dupuy, T. J. et al. Orbital architectures of planet-hosting binaries - II. Low mutual inclinations between planetary and stellar orbits. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 512, 648–660 (2022)

    2022

  16. [64]

    Everett, M. E. et al. High-Resolution Multi-Band Imaging for Validation and Characterization of Small Kepler Planets. Astrophys. J. 149, 55–77 (2015). 58

    2015

  17. [65]

    Torres, G. et al. Validation of Small Kepler Transiting Planet Candidates in or near the Habit- able Zone. Astrophys. J. 154, 264–282 (2017)

    2017

  18. [66]

    Stassun, G. et al. The Revised TESS Input Catalog and Candidate Target List. Astron. J. 158, 138–158 (2019)

    2019

  19. [67]

    Berger, T. D. et al. The Gaia-Kepler Stellar Properties Catalog. I. Homogeneous Fundamental Properties for 186,301 Kepler Stars. Astrophys. J. 159, 280–297 (2020)

    2020

  20. [68]

    Rodriguez, J. E. et al. The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. II. Spitzer Confirms TOI-700 d. Astron. J. 160, 117–140 (2020)

    2020

  21. [69]

    Thompson, S. E. et al. Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog with Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25. Astrophys. J. Supp. 235, 38–86 (2018)

    2018

  22. [70]

    Thompson, S. E. et al. Kepler Data Release 25 Notes. KSCI-19065-002 19065-002, 1–44 (2016)

    2016

  23. [71]

    & Twicken, J

    Morris, R.-L., Jenkins, J.-M. & Twicken, J. Removal of Cosmic Ray-Induced Noise from Kepler Data. Amer . Astron. Soc. Div. Plan. Sci. meeting #44 113, 17 (2012)

    2012

  24. [72]

    Smith, J. C. et al. Kepler Presearch Data Conditioning II - A Bayesian Approach to Systematic Error Correction. Pub. Astron. Soc. Pac. 124, 1000–1014 (2012)

    2012

  25. [73]

    Jenkins, J. M. et al. Initial Characteristics of Kepler Long Cadence Data for Detecting Tran- siting Planets. Astrophys. J. Lett. 713, L120–L125 (2010). 59

    2010

  26. [74]

    Walker, G. A. H. et al. The Differential Rotation ofκ-1 Ceti as Observed by MOST.Astrophys. J. 659, 1611–1622 (2007)

    2007

  27. [75]

    A., Huber, D

    Kallinger, T., Hekker, S., Garc ´ıa, R. A., Huber, D. & Matthews, J. M. Precise stellar surface gravities from the time scales of convectively driven brightness variations. Science Adv. 2, e1500654 (2016)

    2016

  28. [76]

    A., Winn, J

    Carter, J. A., Winn, J. N., Gilliland, R. & Holman, M. J. Near-Infrared Transit Photometry of the Exoplanet HD 149026b. Astrophys. J. 696, 241–253 (2009)

    2009

  29. [77]

    & Watson, G

    Durbin, J. & Watson, G. S. Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression, I. Biometrika 37, 409–428 (1950)

    1950

  30. [78]

    & Faigler, S

    Mazeh, T. & Faigler, S. Detection of the ellipsoidal and the relativistic beaming effects in the CoRoT-3 lightcurve. Astron. Astrophys. 521, L59–L62 (2010)

    2010

  31. [79]

    Waldmann, I. P. et al. Ground-based Near-infrared Emission Spectroscopy of HD 189733b. Astrophys. J. 744, 35–45 (2012)

    2012

  32. [80]

    Kipping, D. M. et al. The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK): II. Analysis of Seven Viable Satellite-Hosting Planet Candidates. Astrophys. J. 770, 101–130 (2013)

    2013

  33. [81]

    Schwarz, G. E. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 6, 461–464 (1978)

    1978

  34. [82]

    & Kipping, D

    Sandford, E. & Kipping, D. Know the Planet, Know the Star: Precise Stellar Densities from Kepler Transit Light Curves. Astron. J. 154, 228–246 (2017). 60

    2017

  35. [83]

    Efficient, uninformative sampling of limb darkening coefficients for two- parameter laws

    Kipping, D. Efficient, uninformative sampling of limb darkening coefficients for two- parameter laws. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 435, 2152–2160 (2013)

    2013

  36. [84]

    Binning is sinning: morphological light-curve distortions due to finite integration time

    Kipping, D. Binning is sinning: morphological light-curve distortions due to finite integration time. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 408, 1758–1769 (2010)

    2010

  37. [85]

    & Tinetti, G

    Kipping, D. & Tinetti, G. Nightside pollution of exoplanet transit depths. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 407, 2589–2598 (2010)

    2010

  38. [86]

    Baranec, C. et al. Robo-AO Kepler Planetary Candidate Survey. II. Adaptive Optics Imaging of 969 Kepler Exoplanet Candidate Host Stars. Astron. J. 152, 18–33 (2016)

    2016

  39. [87]

    Zeigler, C. et al. Robo-AO Kepler Survey. IV . The Effect of Nearby Stars on 3857 Planetary Candidate Systems. Astron. J. 155, 161–175 (2018)

    2018

  40. [88]

    Gilliland, R. L. et al. Hubble Space Telescope High-Resolution Imaging of Kepler Small and Cool Exoplanet Host Stars. Astron. J. 149, 24–37 (2015)

    2015

  41. [90]

    & Soter, S

    Goldreich, P. & Soter, S. Q in the Solar System. Icarus 5, 375–389 (1966)

    1966

  42. [91]

    & Nascimbeni, V

    Bonfanti, A., Ortolani, S. & Nascimbeni, V . Age consistency between exoplanet hosts and field stars. Astron. Astrophys. 585, 5–18 (2016)

    2016

  43. [92]

    Holczer, T. et al. Transit Timing Observations from Kepler. IX. Catalog of the Full Long- cadence Data Set. Astron. J. Supp. 225, 9-41 (2016). 61

    2016

  44. [93]

    W., Jiang, C.-F., Sari, R

    Holczer, T., Xie, J. W., Jiang, C.-F., Sari, R. & Aharonson, O. A Spectral Approach to Transit Timing Variations. Astron. J. Supp. 234, 9–29 (2016)

    2016

  45. [94]

    Kipping, D. M. et al. The Hunt for Exomoons with Kepler (HEK). IV . A Search for Moons around Eight M Dwarfs. Astrophys. J. 784, 28–41 (2014)

    2014

  46. [95]

    Morton, T. et al. False Positive Probabilities for all Kepler Objects of Interest: 1284 Newly Validated Planets and 428 Likely False Positives. Astrophys. J. 822, 86–100 (2016)

    2016

  47. [96]

    Ivshina, E. S. & Winn, J. N. TESS Transit Timing of Hundreds of Hot Jupiters. Astron. J. Supp. 259, 62–80 (2022)

    2022

  48. [97]

    & Schmitt, A

    Teachey, A., Kipping, D. & Schmitt, A. R. HEK. VI. On the Dearth of Galilean Analogs in Kepler, and the Exomoon Candidate Kepler-1625b I. Astron. J. 155, 36–55 (2018)

    2018

  49. [98]

    Lithwick, Y ., Xie, J. & Wu, Y . Extracting Planet Mass and Eccentricity from TTV Data. Astrophys. J. 761, 122–132 (2012)

    2012

  50. [99]

    F., Lissauer, J

    Jontof-Hutter, D., Rowe, J. F., Lissauer, J. J., Fabrycky, D. C. & Ford, E. B. The mass of the Mars-sized exoplanet Kepler-138 b from transit timing. Nature 522, 321–323 (2015)

    2015

  51. [100]

    Transiting planets - light-curve analysis for eccentric orbits.Mon

    Kipping, D. Transiting planets - light-curve analysis for eccentric orbits.Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 389, 1383–1390 (2008)

    2008

  52. [101]

    Scott, D. W. Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons (2015). 62

    2015

  53. [102]

    Earth-proxy

    Zhu, W. & Dong, S., Exoplanet Statistics and Theoretical Implications. Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys. 59, 291–336 (2021). 63 Data Availability This paper includes data collected by the Kepler and TESS mission, which are publicly available from the Mikulski Archive for Space Tel...

    2021

Pith tools

Reviewed August 10, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.