Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission

As of 5 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 19 of 19 outbound references and 2 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2605.00844.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2605.00844 v1

Coverage vector

measured 19 of 19 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-05-10T18:12:35.275281Z

measured 21 of 21 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00

measured 2 of 2 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T17:08:33.774753Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: pith, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.668848Z

Reference resolution

19 of 19 outbound references displayed

verified exact5
verified fuzzy5
unresolved8
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch1

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 534275f6-614c-48d2-8360-8a68f38aecb2 · outbound

This paper cites On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models

Reference 1

Resolution: metadata mismatch; local_arxiv, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.845519Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 2868c179-40ef-4425-a64f-78553700547b · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.305070Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation e20063a4-d904-4fc7-a975-8dc4e01ebab2 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.302330Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 8619867d-9968-4c7f-b16b-840d9b6d4c21 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Reference 4

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.855343Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 66e3189a-9564-45f2-90b1-c2bbc4e3aba8 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.299255Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 524ceeaf-e118-45df-b72e-766bf57c8130 · outbound

This paper cites https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.07543.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.07543

Reference 6

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.837191Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 49ae1085-346d-430c-90f6-5312b120dae2 · outbound

This paper cites & Raghavan, M.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission & Raghavan, M

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.293142Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation c371e79e-5e75-4afe-b57e-4b3bc2d46f69 · outbound

This paper cites & Vedelsby, J.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission & Vedelsby, J

Reference 8

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.300917Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 7e90ee37-a62e-4d17-88cf-346e793d1946 · outbound

This paper cites Can chatgpt forecast stock price movements? return pre- dictability and large language models.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Can chatgpt forecast stock price movements? return pre- dictability and large language models

Reference 9

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.864890Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 986a504a-2914-44fe-bd8a-def85bc31ae8 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.308769Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 31fc19df-564a-40e1-823a-b46a1c898269 · outbound

This paper cites Proceedings 18th International Workshop on Logical and Semantic Frameworks, with Applications and 10th Workshop on Horn Clauses for Verification and Synthesis.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Proceedings 18th International Workshop on Logical and Semantic Frameworks, with Applications and 10th Workshop on Horn Clauses for Verification and Synthesis

Reference 11

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.826594Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation eff70cf3-fd59-4542-80a0-2232ebb7938b · outbound

This paper cites E., Soll, J.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission E., Soll, J

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.324546Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 384ed58d-d744-4cdc-b350-af0822733cc1 · outbound

This paper cites Metaculus track record.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Metaculus track record

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.327593Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 7a6867fe-4ba6-4f3d-b44c-2e5e83c7889d · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.314558Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 958887ad-ea51-4045-82a1-e4369f110746 · outbound

This paper cites AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy

Reference 15

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T05:20:57.870861Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 6fefc1bb-357a-4c0c-9483-4f08049b0392 · outbound

This paper cites P., Nelson, L.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission P., Nelson, L

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.329447Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 7ffa09f8-7b7c-4d8e-90f9-c8b3a16f3330 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.323257Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation df9860d9-edbf-462e-8e66-d254d1877a40 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.321521Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation 963a65c9-f728-4765-9bf7-0c22a9ffce6a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-05-17T06:31:37.326476Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Pith citing papers

Observation 11d4d417-afc7-4ad3-af38-25fa8677b846 · inbound

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior cites this paper.

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission

Reference 27

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-07-03T15:08:33.670170Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-05T06:32:48.257954+00:00.

Observation b034c449-7ffc-4e21-bd81-0ff853165fc2 · inbound

Collusion with Competitive Marginals: Price-Level Audits Are Blind by Construction cites this paper.

Collusion with Competitive Marginals: Price-Level Audits Are Blind by Construction The Oracle's Fingerprint: Correlated AI Forecasting Errors and the Limits of Bias Transmission

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T17:08:33.774753Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.